Election odds › California
California election odds, 2026
What the prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi price for California's governor and House races. governor: Democrats 98% · House: 43 of 52 districts priced, Democrats expected to win 39.7. Prices are probabilities set by traders putting money on the outcome, not our forecast.
California governor race
Democrats favoured (98%, average of the exchanges)
Polymarket
No market for this race.
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California House districts
43 of 52 districts priced. Democrats are expected to win 39.7 of the priced seats; favoured in 40, toss-up in 0, Republicans favoured in 3.
| District | Favoured | Polymarket | Kalshi | Candidates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA-01 | Democrats won | D 100% | D 94% | Mike McGuire v James Gallagher |
| CA-02 | Democrats won | D 100% | D 98% | Jared Huffman v Robin Littau |
| CA-05 | Republicans won | D 0% | D 6% | Michael Masuda v Tom McClintock |
| CA-06 | Democrats won | D 100% | D 100% | |
| CA-08 | D 99% | D 100% | D 99% | John Garamendi v Rudy Recile |
| CA-09 | Democrats won | D 100% | – | |
| CA-10 | D 98% | – | D 98% | Mark DeSaulnier v Jeff Frese |
| CA-12 | D 100% | D 100% | – | |
| CA-13 | Democrats won | D 100% | – | |
| CA-15 | D 99% | – | D 99% | Kevin Mullin v Charles Hoelter |
| CA-16 | Democrats won | D 100% | D 98% | Sam Liccardo v Peter Sundin Soulé |
| CA-17 | D 97% | – | D 97% | Ro Khanna v Ritesh Tandon |
| CA-18 | Democrats won | D 100% | D 99% | Zoe Lofgren v Shane Lewis |
| CA-19 | D 97% | – | D 97% | Jimmy Panetta v Peter Verbica |
| CA-20 | Republicans won | D 0% | D 3% | Sandra Van Scotter v Vince Fong |
| CA-21 | Democrats won | D 100% | – | |
| CA-22 | Democrats won | D 100% | – | |
| CA-23 | R 88% | D 4% | D 21% | Tessa Lynn Hodge v Jay Obernolte |
| CA-24 | D 99% | – | D 99% | Salud Carbajal v Bob Smith |
| CA-25 | Democrats won | D 100% | D 96% | Raul Ruiz v Joe Males |
| CA-26 | D 96% | D 100% | D 92% | Jacqui Irwin v Sam Gallucci |
| CA-28 | D 99% | – | D 99% | Judy Chu v April Verlato |
| CA-29 | Democrats won | D 100% | – | |
| CA-30 | Democrats won | D 100% | D 98% | Laura Friedman v Scott Meyers |
| CA-31 | D 98% | – | D 98% | Gil Cisneros v Eric Ching |
| CA-32 | D 100% | D 100% | D 99% | Brad Sherman v Larry Thompson |
| CA-33 | D 99% | D 100% | D 97% | Pete Aguilar v Stephanie Vargas |
| CA-35 | Democrats won | D 100% | D 97% | Norma Torres v Mike Cargile |
| CA-36 | D 99% | D 100% | D 99% | Ted Lieu v Houston Brignano |
| CA-38 | D 97% | – | D 97% | Hilda Solis v Pedro Antonio Casas |
| CA-39 | Democrats won | D 100% | D 97% | Mark Takano v Steve Manos |
| CA-41 | D 100% | D 100% | – | |
| CA-42 | Democrats won | D 100% | D 96% | Robert Garcia v Brian Burley |
| CA-43 | D 98% | – | D 98% | Maxine Waters v Cristian Morales |
| CA-44 | D 96% | – | D 96% | Nanette Barragán v Genevieve Angel |
| CA-45 | D 100% | D 100% | – | |
| CA-46 | D 99% | D 100% | D 98% | Lou Correa v David Pan |
| CA-47 | Democrats won | D 100% | – | |
| CA-48 | Democrats won | D 100% | D 99% | Marni von Wilpert v Jim Desmond |
| CA-49 | D 100% | D 100% | – | |
| CA-50 | D 98% | D 100% | D 97% | Scott Peters v Stephen Cohen |
| CA-51 | Democrats won | D 100% | D 99% | Sara Jacobs v Ricardo Cabrera |
| CA-52 | Democrats won | D 100% | D 98% | Juan Vargas v Jeff Belle |
California in the news
- California Voters Reject Billionaire Tax Proposal in Midterm Election 26 publishers
- Supreme Court Rejects DOJ Bid to Set Aside California Ballots 24 publishers
- California Governor Commutes All Death Sentences for 548 Inmates 17 publishers
- Google, Meta, TikTok Sue California Over Teen Social Media Ban 7 publishers
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Odds from Polymarket and Kalshi. Market prices are information, not investment advice. Where only one exchange prices a race, the other is shown as having no market. The national map · How the markets did.