California Voters Reject Billionaire Tax Proposal in Midterm Election Hot: Odds moved 18 points in 24 hours

The measure, opposed by tech executives including Sergey Brin, is projected to fail as voters reject the first-of-its-kind wealth tax.

26 publishers · 62 articles · first seen 26 Oct 2026 · updated 4h ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

The odds

How the odds moved · At least 40%

Each tick is a source publishing on this story · 43 more published before price tracking began

Price data

Time	Chance of yes
now	99%
7 Nov, 05:02 UTC	99%
5 Nov, 11:11 UTC	96%
4 Nov, 10:48 UTC	0%

The story so far

26 publishers have covered this in 62 articles since 26 Oct 2026. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera published first, on 26 October at 09:08 UTC; Times of India followed 19h 01m later. The most recent article, from Bloomberg.com, appeared on 7 November at 03:08 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), Bloomberg.com (major outlet), TechCrunch Startups (major outlet), The New York Times (major outlet), The Hollywood Reporter (major outlet), politico.com (major outlet), The Guardian Business (major outlet), The Economist (major outlet), Just In News (major outlet), NPR Politics (major outlet), Variety (major outlet), News Feed (major outlet) and 14 more, all listed under Sources below.

3 prediction markets price this story:

At least 40% — the market puts it at 99%, with $1 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 3 Nov 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the certified results show that at least 40% of the popular vote supports Proposition 40 in the 2026 California election. The outcome depends entirely on the final, official certification of those votes, not on early polls or projections. Readers often mistake the date of the election itself for the deadline, but the resolution waits for the certified count.
Proposition 4 — the market puts it at 1%, with $3k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 3 Nov 2027. The outcome is Yes if California voters approve Proposition 4 and it becomes law. The outcome is No if they reject it or if it fails to pass. Readers often mistake the news headline about rejection for the final resolution, but only the official election results determine the answer.
Republican party — the market puts it at 6%, with $52 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 7 Nov 2029. The market resolves to Yes if a Republican representative is sworn in as a U.S. Senator from California for the term starting in 2029. It resolves to No if this specific event does not occur. Readers often mistake the current ballot efforts or court blocks for the resolution criteria, but only the actual swearing-in of the senator matters.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on At least 40% at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

26 Oct, 09:08Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera California’s billionaire tax faces a precarious road from rich opposition—
27 Oct, 04:09Times of India Stanford economists warn California billionaire tax could leave state $39 billion poorer—
27 Oct, 12:00Bloomberg.com Colorado Joins California, Washington in Ballot Measure on Taxing Wealthy—
27 Oct, 13:01TechCrunch Startups Billionaire Palmer Luckey isn’t leaving California over the wealth tax—
27 Oct, 14:05The New York Times How Billionaires Are Fighting the Prop 40 California Wealth Tax—
27 Oct, 17:07Fortune About 70% of tax scholars would vote against California’s billionaire tax, a new survey finds—
27 Oct, 17:36The Hollywood Reporter Studios Get Millions From California’s Tax Credit. But They Balk at the State’s Diversity Initiative—
28 Oct, 02:17Times of India Upset Palmer Luckey is not leaving California over 'Billionaire tax'—
28 Oct, 10:55politico.com Billionaires shatter spending record to fight California wealth tax—
28 Oct, 14:00Politico Billionaire taxes, trans rights, abortion, voting rights: This year's biggest state votes—
Show 52 later sources
1. 30 Oct, 10:30National Review California’s Act of Fiscal Self-Sabotage—
2. 30 Oct, 15:00The Guardian US Billionaire tax: how a union leader’s ‘crazy’ idea became the defining issue of California’s midterms—
3. 30 Oct, 15:07Bloomberg.com What’s Driving California’s Elections on the Midterms—
4. 30 Oct, 20:49Mother Jones California Billionaires May Well Prevail in Their Quest to Block a State Wealth Tax—
5. 31 Oct, 11:00The Guardian US Top Democrats are fighting a billionaire tax in California. Their voters are on the other side |—
6. 31 Oct, 13:59Times of India Billionaires are fighting California tax; why Jensen Huang says he's 'okay with that’—
7. 31 Oct, 14:50The Economist California’s billionaire tax is dividing Democrats—
8. 31 Oct, 15:01theinformation.com The Billionaire Tax Might Fail—For Now—
9. 31 Oct, 19:41Fortune If California undid its ‘original sin’ and matched Texas on taxing property, it would raise more revenue than the billionaire tax, economists say—
10. 1 Nov, 17:00The Hill Billionaire tax divides California Democrats, draws myriad questions—
11. 2 Nov, 11:30NPR Politics Two economists studied California's billionaire tax. They reached wildly different conclusions—
12. 2 Nov, 12:00The Guardian Business I’m a wealthy Californian. The billionaire tax is a win for everyone | George Zimmer—
13. 2 Nov, 16:00Variety Gavin Newsom Proposes Expanding California’s Movie and TV Tax Credit to at Least $1 Billion—
14. 2 Nov, 16:00IndieWire As Production Jobs Flee California, Governor Gavin Newsom Pushes to Expand Film and TV Tax Credit to $1 Billion Annually—
15. 2 Nov, 16:00Deadline Newsom’s November Surprise: Boost CA Film & TV Tax Incentives To $1B ASAP, Says Exiting Governor—
16. 2 Nov, 16:02Fortune As Sergey Brin, Larry Page and the ultra-rich flee California, one 33-year-old tech billionaire is ‘not running’—he ‘wants to fight’ for the state—
17. 2 Nov, 16:02Fortune As Sergey Brin, Larry Page and the ultra-rich flee California, one 34-year-old tech billionaire is ‘not running’—he ‘wants to fight’ for the state—
18. 2 Nov, 16:20The Hollywood Reporter $1 Billion or Bust? Gavin Newsom Proposes Major California Film and TV Tax Credit Expansion—
19. 2 Nov, 16:27Inc.Here’s How Much Mark Zuckerberg, Jensen Huang and Eric Schmidt Will Have to Pay If California’s Billionaire Tax Passes—
20. 2 Nov, 18:53Bloomberg.com Newsom Proposes Expanding California’s Film Credit to $1 Billion—
21. 2 Nov, 20:00Quartz California is proposing to expand its film and TV tax credit to at least $1 billion—
22. 2 Nov, 20:55politico.com What the voter records of California’s billionaires reveal—
23. 2 Nov, 22:28Deadline Hollywood Unions Wonder Whether Next California Governor Will Share Newsom’s Commitment To Expanding Film Tax Credits—
24. 3 Nov, 00:07The Hill California Democrats divided on billionaire tax—
25. 3 Nov, 07:17Times of India Palmer Luckey says staying in California amid tax plan upsets billionaire friends—
26. 3 Nov, 10:49France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines Californians vote on billionaire tax to replace federal cuts in healthcare funding—
27. 3 Nov, 13:51France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines Californians vote on ballot initiative to impose one-time tax on billionaires—
28. 3 Nov, 15:30The Hollywood Reporter Should California Subsidize Noah Wyle’s ‘The Pitt’ Pay?—
29. 3 Nov, 15:55Fortune Minecraft billionaire who beat Beyoncé and Jay-Z to a Beverly Hills mansion is selling—just as California votes on a billionaire tax—
30. 3 Nov, 16:11All Content from Business Insider America's tech elite are holding their breath as they await California's billionaire tax vote—
31. 3 Nov, 23:14All Content from Business Insider What the voter records of California's billionaires reveal—
32. 4 Nov, 06:20theinformation.com California Billionaire Tax Losing After Polls Closed—
33. 4 Nov, 07:24Fortune ‘This might just be the biggest defeat for big money in politics’: Billionaires poured hundreds of millions into Tuesday’s races and still lost—
34. 4 Nov, 13:30The Hollywood Reporter Hollywood Sat Out the Billionaire-Tax Fight. Its Workers Could Pay the Price.0%
35. 4 Nov, 19:51Fox News Politics Newsom breaks with socialists over billionaire tax as California voters appear poised to reject it0%
36. 4 Nov, 20:01Inc.Billionaires Appear to Have Defeated The California Wealth Tax0%
37. 4 Nov, 20:53Bloomberg.com California’s Election Scorecard: Newsom, Becerra Gain, Billionaire Tax Falters0%
38. 4 Nov, 21:10MarketWatch Billionaires aren’t off the hook for higher taxes, even if they did dodge California’s wealth tax0%
39. 5 Nov, 00:52News Feed Democratic wave keeps US wealth taxes on the agenda despite California setback0%
40. 5 Nov, 11:00News Feed How to think about wealth taxation0%
41. 5 Nov, 13:00politico.com Democrats see new momentum for plans to tax the rich96%▲96 points since the previous source
42. 5 Nov, 18:06The Hill News Horrible billionaires tax defeated in liberal California96%
43. 5 Nov, 18:35politico.com Sergey Brin’s big victory in California96%
44. 5 Nov, 19:15Bloomberg.com California Voters Poised to Reject First-Ever Billionaire Tax96%
45. 5 Nov, 20:22The Dispatch California’s Billionaire Tax Is Changing the World96%
46. 6 Nov, 04:06Times of India California’s billionaire tax faces defeat, but tech execs may not be off the hook96%
47. 6 Nov, 07:36Times of India Sergey brin beats California Billionaire Tax, but 3 federal proposals target the rich96%
48. 6 Nov, 11:55politico.com ‘What a waste’: How California’s billionaire tax campaign fell apart96%
49. 6 Nov, 18:19Fortune Voters in Silicon Valley rejected the billionaire wealth tax while those in Los Angeles and San Francisco—home to the two top AI companies—wanted it96%
50. 7 Nov, 02:00Bloomberg.com California Voters Reject Billionaire Tax, DDHQ Says96%
51. 7 Nov, 02:12Just In News California rejects billionaire tax proposal in win for executives, Newsom96%
52. 7 Nov, 03:08Bloomberg.com Miller New Chief of Staff,DDHQ: CA Rejects Billionaires Tax,More96%
NowCurrent odds99%

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

Show 56 more sources

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

Kalshi At least 40% 99% +3 $1 24hends 3 Nov 2027
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Kalshi Proposition 4 1% −18 $3k 24hends 3 Nov 2027
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Kalshi Republican party 6% $52 24hends 7 Nov 2029
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In this story

California
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