The market moved first
For every story we know when the first article appeared and what its market did around that moment. These are the stories where the odds had already moved in the 24 hours before anyone reported it, and moved more then than in the 24 hours after. Traders were pricing something coverage had not caught up with.
- US Voters Reject Data Centers in Midterms, Fueling Democratic Blue Wave
+53 points in the 24h before the first report · +8 in the 24h after · 87% of the move came first · first seen 3d ago
Kalshi Democrats, 12 to 14% 10% −28 - Colorado Voters Reject Amendment on Mid-Decade Redistricting Restrictions
+39 points in the 24h before the first report · +3 in the 24h after · 93% of the move came first · first seen 37h ago
Resolved Amendment 87 Yes 12h ago - Netflix Hires Mattel’s Roberto Stanichi To Lead Consumer Products And Experiences
+31 points in the 24h before the first report · −7 in the 24h after · 82% of the move came first · first seen 3d ago
Kalshi Netflix 85% +27 - Vance, GOP figures blame Iran war for midterm losses as Democrats prepare to curb conflict
−25 points in the 24h before the first report · +14 in the 24h after · 64% of the move came first · first seen 3d ago
Kalshi JD Vance: Republican, Marco Rubio: Republican 49% - Alcaraz reaches Paris Masters semifinals after Berrettini withdraws
+19 points in the 24h before the first report · +1 in the 24h after · 95% of the move came first · first seen 43h ago
Polymarket Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Paris, France? 64% +13 - Notre Dame Faces No. 1 Miami in Must-Win College Football Showdown
−15 points in the 24h before the first report · 0 in the 24h after · 100% of the move came first · first seen 5d ago
Kalshi Notre Dame 26% +23 - Hyperliquid Strategies Files For CFTC Registration To Bring Perps To US
−12 points in the 24h before the first report · −6 in the 24h after · 68% of the move came first · first seen 33h ago
Polymarket Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? 26% −4
How this is counted
A story's first article is the earliest publish time among its sources, as stamped by the publisher's own feed. Its market is the best-matched one. We take the market's price 24 hours before that moment, at it, and 24 hours after, from the price changes we record every few minutes. A story is listed when the move before is at least 5 points and larger than the move after. Stories with prices tracked for less than a full window either side are not measured at all, rather than measured badly.
This describes when the odds moved, not why. Feed timestamps can lag a newsroom by minutes or hours, and a market can move on the same event a story reports before the story is published. Nothing here says anyone knew anything.