9 publishers in 24 hours · odds down 2 points
Polymarket Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? 11% −2News vs. market
Where coverage and the odds disagree. A widely covered story with a market that has not moved means traders do not think the news changes the outcome. A market moving hard on a story the news has gone quiet on means traders are reacting to something coverage has not caught up with.
Big story, market unmoved
At least 6 publishers covered it in the last 24 hours, while its busiest undecided market moved 3 points or less. Markets priced above 90% or below 10% are left out: they have little room to move.
6 publishers in 24 hours · odds down 2 points
Polymarket Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? 11% −2Market moving, news quiet
The story's market moved at least 10 points in 24 hours while 1 publisher or fewer covered it.
Nothing right now: no market is out ahead of the news.
Both lists only count markets that traded at least $10k in the last day. A market that barely trades sits still whatever the news.
More ways we compare news to markets
- The market moved first — stories where the odds shifted before the first report
- Gaining speed — stories picking up publishers fastest right now
- First to report — which publishers break stories, and by how many minutes
- Who moves markets — which publishers' reporting tends to move a price
- Press vs. reality — coverage volume against how often the story's market called it right
- Crowd vs. market — how readers' own calls score against the market's