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2026 election odds

What the prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi say about each state's Senate, House and governor races, and about who controls Congress. Prices are probabilities set by traders putting money on the outcome, not our forecast.

Senate control

Democrats: Polymarket 100% · Kalshi 100%
Republicans: Polymarket 0% · Kalshi <1%

House control

Democrats: Polymarket 100% · Kalshi 100%
Republicans: Polymarket 0% · Kalshi <1%

Biggest moves in 24 hours

Mean change across the exchanges that report one. How the markets did →

VT NH MA RI CT NJ DE MD DC

Hover or tap a state to see both exchanges' odds.

Democrats favoured Republicans favoured No race or no market Darker means a bigger lead.

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Data: download the odds as JSON or CSV, free to use with a link back.

Senate races, most competitive first

Closest races

  1. South Carolina D 64%
  2. Iowa D 73%
  3. Texas D 86%
  4. Michigan D 88%
  5. Louisiana R 95%
  6. Montana R 95%
  7. Alaska D 96%
  8. New Hampshire D 96%

Where the exchanges disagree

  1. South Carolina D: Polymarket 100% · Kalshi 28%
  2. Iowa D: Polymarket 100% · Kalshi 45%
  3. Texas D: Polymarket 100% · Kalshi 71%
  4. Michigan D: Polymarket 100% · Kalshi 76%
  5. Louisiana D: Polymarket 0% · Kalshi 11%
  6. New Hampshire D: Polymarket 100% · Kalshi 92%
Senate races, 2026
StateFavouredPolymarketKalshi
South Carolina Democrats favoured (64%) D 100% R 0% D 28% R <1%Annie Andrews v Darline Graham
Iowa Democrats favoured (73%) D 100% R 0% D 45% R <1%Josh Turek v Ashley Hinson
Texas Democrats favoured (86%) D 100% R 0% D 71% R <1%James Talarico v Ken Paxton
Michigan Democrats favoured (88%) D 100% R 0% D 76% R <1%Abdul El-Sayed v Mike Rogers
Louisiana Republicans favoured (95%) D 0% R 100% D 11% R 89%Jamie Davis v Julia Letlow
Montana Republicans favoured (95%) D 0% R 100% D <1% R 89%Alani Bankhead v Kurt AlmeSeth Bodnar 11%
Alaska Democrats favoured (96%) no market D 96% R 3%
New Hampshire Democrats favoured (96%) D 100% R 0% D 92% R 8%Chris Pappas v John E. Sununu
South Dakota Republicans favoured (97%) D 0% R 100% D 1% R 94%Julian Beaudion v Mike RoundsBrian Bengs 6%
Arkansas Republicans favoured (98%) D 0% R 100% D 6% R 95%Hallie Shoffner v Tom Cotton
Idaho Republicans favoured (98%) D 0% R 100% D <1% R 96%David Roth v Jim RischTodd Achilles 6%
Kentucky Republicans favoured (98%) D 0% R 100% D 3% R 97%Charles Booker v Andy Barr
Oregon Democrats favoured (98%) R 0% D 98% R 2%Jeff Merkley v David Brock Smith
North Carolina Democrats favoured (98%) D 100% R 0% D 97% R <1%Roy Cooper v Michael Whatley
Tennessee Republicans favoured (99%) D 0% R 100% D 3% R 97%Marquita Bradshaw v Bill Hagerty
Oklahoma Republicans favoured (99%) D 0% R 100% D 3% R 97%N’Kiyla Thomas v Kevin Hern
Delaware Democrats favoured (99%) R 1% D 99% R <1%Chris Coons v Michael Katz
New Jersey Democrats favoured (99%) D 100% R 0% D 98% R 3%Cory Booker v Justin Murphy
West Virginia Republicans favoured (99%) D 0% R 100% D 2% R 98%Rachel Fetty Anderson v Shelley Moore Capito
Mississippi Democrats favoured (99%) D 99% R 1% D 99% R 1%Scott Colom v Cindy Hyde-Smith
Alabama Republicans favoured (99%) D 0% R 100% D 3% R 98%Everett Wess v Barry Moore
Massachusetts Democrats favoured (99%) D 100% R 0% D 99% R 2%Ed Markey v John Deaton
New Mexico Democrats favoured (99%) D 100% R 0% D 99% R 2%Ben Ray Luján v Larry E. Marker
Virginia Democrats favoured (99%) D 100% R 0% D 99% R 2%Mark Warner v Bert Mizusawa
Illinois Democrats favoured (99%) D 100% R 0% D 99% R 1%Juliana Stratton v Don Tracy
Wyoming Republicans favoured (99%) R 100% D 2% R 99%James Byrd v Harriet Hageman
Colorado Democrats favoured (100%) D 100% R 0% D 99% R 1%John Hickenlooper v Mark Baisley
Rhode Island Democrats favoured (100%) D 100% R 0% D 99% R 1%Jack Reed v Raymond McKay
Georgia Democrats favoured (100%) D 100% R 0% D 100% R <1%Jon Ossoff v Mike Collins
Kansas Democrats favoured (100%) D 100% R 0% D 100% R <1%Adam Hamilton v Roger Marshall
Maine Democrats favoured (100%) D 100% R 0% D 100% R <1%Troy Jackson v Susan Collins
Minnesota Democrats favoured (100%) D 100% R 0% D 100% R 10%Peggy Flanagan v Michele Tafoya
Nebraska Republicans favoured (100%) D 0% R 100% D 1% R 100%Cindy Burbank v Pete RickettsDan Osborn 34%
Florida Republicans favoured (100%) D 0% R 100% no market
Ohio Democrats favoured (100%) D 100% R 0% no market

"Average" is the plain mean of the exchanges that price a party; where only one does, that exchange's price is used. Each party's price comes from its own market, so a race's two sides need not add to exactly 100%, and independents are listed beside the table row rather than on the map. On the House view, a district's two sides are scaled to add to 100% before the seats are added up, a district is a toss-up when neither party is above 60%, and the totals treat districts as independent, so they are a tally of prices and not a forecast of the chamber. Some state markets trade very little, so a price can sit still for hours. Market prices are information, not investment advice. Updated .