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Idaho election odds, 2026

What the prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi price for Idaho's Senate, governor and House races. Republicans won the Senate race · governor: Republicans 98% · House: 2 of 2 districts priced, Democrats expected to win 0.1. Prices are probabilities set by traders putting money on the outcome, not our forecast.

Idaho Senate race

Settled: Republicans won. A day before, Polymarket gave Democrats <1% and Kalshi <1%. Polymarket called it. Kalshi called it.

Polymarket

Republicans 100% +3

Kalshi

Jim Risch (R) 96% +1

Also priced: Todd Achilles 6%

0%25%50%75%100%0%0%27 Sept30 Oct
PolymarketKalshiChance Democrats win, as each exchange prices it. History is recorded from when we began tracking each market.

Idaho governor race

Republicans favoured (98%, average of the exchanges)

Polymarket

$2k traded in 24 hours

Kalshi

$994 traded in 24 hours

0%25%50%75%100%3%21 Oct7 Nov
KalshiChance Democrats win, as each exchange prices it. History is recorded from when we began tracking each market.
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Idaho House districts

2 of 2 districts priced. Democrats are expected to win 0.1 of the priced seats; favoured in 0, toss-up in 0, Republicans favoured in 2.

Idaho House districts, 2026
DistrictFavouredPolymarketKalshiCandidates
ID-01 R 97% – D 3% Kaylee Peterson v Russ Fulcher
ID-02 Republicans won D 0% D 5% Elinor Gilbreath v Mike Simpson

Other states

Odds from Polymarket and Kalshi. Market prices are information, not investment advice. Where only one exchange prices a race, the other is shown as having no market. The national map · How the markets did.