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Hawaii election odds, 2026

What the prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi price for Hawaii's governor and House races. governor: Democrats 97% · House: 2 of 2 districts priced, Democrats expected to win 2.0. Prices are probabilities set by traders putting money on the outcome, not our forecast.

Hawaii governor race

Democrats favoured (97%, average of the exchanges)

Polymarket

Republicans 0% −2

$4k traded in 24 hours

Kalshi

Josh Green (D) 97% −1

$4k traded in 24 hours

0%25%50%75%100%97%21 Oct7 Nov
KalshiChance Democrats win, as each exchange prices it. History is recorded from when we began tracking each market.
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Hawaii House districts

2 of 2 districts priced. Democrats are expected to win 2.0 of the priced seats; favoured in 2, toss-up in 0, Republicans favoured in 0.

Hawaii House districts, 2026
DistrictFavouredPolymarketKalshiCandidates
HI-01 Democrats won D 100% D 98% Ed Case v Adriel Lam
HI-02 Democrats won D 100% D 97% Jill Tokuda v Brenton Awa

Other states

Odds from Polymarket and Kalshi. Market prices are information, not investment advice. Where only one exchange prices a race, the other is shown as having no market. The national map · How the markets did.