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Nevada election odds, 2026

What the prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi price for Nevada's governor and House races. Democrats won the governor race · House: 4 of 4 districts priced, Democrats expected to win 4.0. Prices are probabilities set by traders putting money on the outcome, not our forecast.

Nevada governor race

Settled: Democrats won. A day before, Polymarket gave Democrats 77% and Kalshi 74%. Polymarket called it. Kalshi called it.

Polymarket

Democrats 100% +24
Republicans 0% −23

Kalshi

Aaron Ford (D) 74% −3
0%25%50%75%100%97%74%26 Sept4 Nov
PolymarketKalshiChance Democrats win, as each exchange prices it. History is recorded from when we began tracking each market.

Nevada House districts

4 of 4 districts priced. Democrats are expected to win 4.0 of the priced seats; favoured in 4, toss-up in 0, Republicans favoured in 0.

Nevada House districts, 2026
DistrictFavouredPolymarketKalshiCandidates
NV-01 Democrats won D 100% –
NV-02 Democrats won D 100% D 100% Teresa Benitez-Thompson v David Flippo
NV-03 Democrats won D 100% –
NV-04 Democrats won D 100% –

Other states

Odds from Polymarket and Kalshi. Market prices are information, not investment advice. Where only one exchange prices a race, the other is shown as having no market. The national map · How the markets did.