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Iowa election odds, 2026

What the prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi price for Iowa's Senate, governor and House races. Democrats won the Senate race · Democrats won the governor race · House: 4 of 4 districts priced, Democrats expected to win 2.9. Prices are probabilities set by traders putting money on the outcome, not our forecast.

Iowa Senate race

Settled: Democrats won. A day before, Polymarket gave Democrats 53% and Kalshi 45%. Polymarket called it. Kalshi missed it.

Polymarket

Democrats 100% +48

Republicans 0% −48

Kalshi

Josh Turek (D) 45% −3

Ashley Hinson (R) <1% −49

PolymarketKalshiChance Democrats win, as each exchange prices it. History is recorded from when we began tracking each market.

Iowa governor race

Settled: Democrats won. A day before, Polymarket gave Democrats 90% and Kalshi 87%. Polymarket called it. Kalshi called it.

Polymarket

Democrats 100% +11

Republicans 0% −12

Kalshi

Rob Sand (D) 100% +13

Zach Lahn (R) <1% −15

PolymarketKalshiChance Democrats win, as each exchange prices it. History is recorded from when we began tracking each market.

Iowa House districts

4 of 4 districts priced. Democrats are expected to win 2.9 of the priced seats; favoured in 3, toss-up in 0, Republicans favoured in 1.

Iowa House districts, 2026
District	Favoured	Polymarket	Kalshi	Candidates
IA-01	Democrats won	D 100%	–
IA-02	Democrats won	D 100%	D 71%	Lindsay James v Joe Mitchell
IA-03	Democrats won	D 100%	–
IA-04	Republicans won	D 0%	D 3%	Dave Dawson v Chris McGowan

Iowa in the news

Democrats Flip Iowa and Kansas Senate Seats, Seizing Control of Chamber 17 publishers
Democrat Rob Sand Wins Iowa Governor Race, Defeating Zach Lahn 7 publishers
Iowa Stuns No. 18 Michigan With Last-Second Touchdown to Win 20-19 4 publishers

All Iowa stories →

Other states

Odds from Polymarket and Kalshi. Market prices are information, not investment advice. Where only one exchange prices a race, the other is shown as having no market. The national map · How the markets did.