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Illinois election odds, 2026
What the prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi price for Illinois's Senate, governor and House races. Democrats won the Senate race · Democrats won the governor race · House: 17 of 17 districts priced, Democrats expected to win 13.8. Prices are probabilities set by traders putting money on the outcome, not our forecast.
Illinois Senate race
Settled: Democrats won. A day before, Polymarket gave Democrats 98% and Kalshi 99%. Polymarket called it. Kalshi called it.
Illinois governor race
Settled: Democrats won. A day before, Polymarket gave Democrats 98% and Kalshi 98%. Polymarket called it. Kalshi called it.
Illinois House districts
17 of 17 districts priced. Democrats are expected to win 13.8 of the priced seats; favoured in 14, toss-up in 0, Republicans favoured in 3.
| District | Favoured | Polymarket | Kalshi | Candidates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IL-01 | Democrats won | D 100% | D 95% | Jonathan Jackson v Christian Maxwell |
| IL-02 | Democrats won | D 100% | D 96% | Donna Miller v Michael Noack |
| IL-03 | D 96% | – | D 96% | Delia Ramirez v Angel Oakley |
| IL-04 | Democrats won | D 100% | D 100% | Patty Garcia v Lupe Castillo |
| IL-05 | Democrats won | D 100% | D 94% | Mike Quigley v Tommy Hanson |
| IL-06 | D 95% | – | D 95% | Sean Casten v Niki Conforti |
| IL-07 | Democrats won | D 100% | D 97% | La Shawn Ford v Chad Koppie |
| IL-08 | D 96% | – | D 96% | Melissa Bean v Jennifer Davis |
| IL-09 | D 96% | – | D 96% | Daniel Biss v John Elleson |
| IL-10 | D 98% | – | D 98% | Brad Schneider v Carl Lambrecht |
| IL-11 | D 98% | D 100% | D 96% | Bill Foster v Jeff Walter |
| IL-12 | R 95% | – | D 5% | Julie Fortier v Mike Bost |
| IL-13 | D 99% | D 100% | D 97% | Nikki Budzinski v Jeff Wilson |
| IL-14 | D 99% | D 100% | D 99% | Lauren Underwood v James Marter |
| IL-15 | Republicans won | D 0% | D 5% | Jennifer Todd v Mary Miller |
| IL-16 | Republicans won | D 0% | D 4% | Paul Nolley v Darin LaHood |
| IL-17 | Democrats won | D 100% | – |
Illinois in the news
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Odds from Polymarket and Kalshi. Market prices are information, not investment advice. Where only one exchange prices a race, the other is shown as having no market. The national map · How the markets did.