NewsMarkets
Live

Election odds › Arkansas

Arkansas election odds, 2026

What the prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi price for Arkansas's Senate, governor and House races. Republicans won the Senate race · Republicans won the governor race · House: 4 of 4 districts priced, Democrats expected to win 0.1. Prices are probabilities set by traders putting money on the outcome, not our forecast.

Arkansas Senate race

Settled: Republicans won. A day before, Polymarket gave Democrats 4% and Kalshi 6%. Polymarket called it. Kalshi called it.

Polymarket

Democrats 0% −3
Republicans 100% +3

Kalshi

Hallie Shoffner (D) 6%
Tom Cotton (R) 95% −1
0%25%50%75%100%0%6%23 Sept4 Nov
PolymarketKalshiChance Democrats win, as each exchange prices it. History is recorded from when we began tracking each market.

Arkansas governor race

Settled: Republicans won. A day before, Polymarket gave Democrats – and Kalshi 3%. Kalshi called it.

Polymarket

Republicans 100% +2

Kalshi

Fred Love (D) 1% −2
Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) 100% +2
0%25%50%75%100%1%21 Oct4 Nov
KalshiChance Democrats win, as each exchange prices it. History is recorded from when we began tracking each market.

Arkansas House districts

4 of 4 districts priced. Democrats are expected to win 0.1 of the priced seats; favoured in 0, toss-up in 0, Republicans favoured in 4.

Arkansas House districts, 2026
DistrictFavouredPolymarketKalshiCandidates
AR-01 R 96% – D 4% Terri Yarbrough Green v Rick Crawford
AR-02 Republicans won D 0% D 5% Chris Jones v French Hill
AR-03 Republicans won D 0% D 4% Robb Ryerse v Steve Womack
AR-04 R 98% – D 2% James Russell v Bruce Westerman

Arkansas in the news

All Arkansas stories →

Other states

Odds from Polymarket and Kalshi. Market prices are information, not investment advice. Where only one exchange prices a race, the other is shown as having no market. The national map · How the markets did.