Election odds › Arizona

Arizona election odds, 2026

What the prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi price for Arizona's governor and House races. Democrats won the governor race · House: 9 of 9 districts priced, Democrats expected to win 5.0. Prices are probabilities set by traders putting money on the outcome, not our forecast.

Arizona governor race

Settled: Democrats won. A day before, Polymarket gave Democrats 94% and Kalshi 92%. Polymarket called it. Kalshi called it.

Polymarket

Democrats 100% +7

Republicans 0% −7

Kalshi

Katie Hobbs (D) 92% +1

Andy Biggs (R) <1% −8

PolymarketKalshiChance Democrats win, as each exchange prices it. History is recorded from when we began tracking each market.

Arizona House districts

9 of 9 districts priced. Democrats are expected to win 5.0 of the priced seats; favoured in 5, toss-up in 0, Republicans favoured in 4.

Arizona House districts, 2026
District	Favoured	Polymarket	Kalshi	Candidates
AZ-01	Democrats won	D 100%	–
AZ-02	R 99%	D 1%	–
AZ-03	Democrats won	D 100%	D 97%
AZ-04	D 98%	D 100%	D 96%	Greg Stanton v Zuhdi Jasser
AZ-05	Republicans won	D 0%	D 3%	Elizabeth Lee v Mark Lamb
AZ-06	Democrats won	D 100%	–
AZ-07	D 98%	D 100%	D 96%	Adelita Grijalva v Daniel Francis Butierez Sr.
AZ-08	Republicans won	D 0%	D <1%	Bernadette Greene-Placentia v Abe Hamadeh
AZ-09	Republicans won	D 0%	D 3%	Dani Sterbinsky v Paul Gosar

Arizona in the news

Washington, Arizona and Nebraska voters approve bans on transgender girls in school sports 3 publishers
Arizona Voters Choose Governor in Race Between Hobbs and Biggs 2 publishers
Arizona Rejects Citizenship Voting Requirement Ballot Measure 1 publisher

All Arizona stories →

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Odds from Polymarket and Kalshi. Market prices are information, not investment advice. Where only one exchange prices a race, the other is shown as having no market. The national map · How the markets did.