Election odds › How the markets did
How the markets did
A prediction market is only worth watching if it is right more often than its price says. As each 2026 race is settled, this page records who won and whether Polymarket and Kalshi had that side ahead the day before. Races settle as the exchanges resolve their markets, which can take hours or weeks after polls close on 3 November, and this page fills in by itself.
Senate
31 of 35 settled
Democrats won 18, Republicans 13.
A day before, the favourite won in 28 of 29 races on Polymarket and 27 of 29 on Kalshi.
Governor
30 of 35 settled
Democrats won 20, Republicans 10.
A day before, the favourite won in 27 of 28 races on Polymarket and 27 of 28 on Kalshi.
House
277 of 423 districts settled
Democrats won 147, Republicans 130.
Senate control
Democrats
Settled by the exchanges.
House control
Democrats
Settled by the exchanges.
Senate races, biggest upsets first
| State | Won by | Polymarket, day before | Kalshi, day before |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Carolina | Democrats | D 31% · missed | D 28% · missed |
| Iowa | Democrats | D 53% · called it | D 45% · missed |
| Kansas | Democrats | D 62% · called it | D 63% · called it |
| Ohio | Democrats | D 72% · called it | no price |
| Texas | Democrats | D 75% · called it | D 71% · called it |
| Maine | Democrats | D 74% · called it | D 74% · called it |
| Michigan | Democrats | D 81% · called it | D 76% · called it |
| Florida | Republicans | D 14% · called it | no price |
| Louisiana | Republicans | D 13% · called it | D 11% · called it |
| Minnesota | Democrats | D 92% · called it | D 91% · called it |
| New Hampshire | Democrats | D 96% · called it | D 92% · called it |
| Arkansas | Republicans | D 4% · called it | D 6% · called it |
| Kentucky | Republicans | D 4% · called it | D 3% · called it |
| Tennessee | Republicans | D 4% · called it | D 3% · called it |
| Alabama | Republicans | no price | D 3% · called it |
| Georgia | Democrats | D 97% · called it | D 97% · called it |
| North Carolina | Democrats | D 98% · called it | D 97% · called it |
| Oklahoma | Republicans | D 1% · called it | D 3% · called it |
| New Mexico | Democrats | D 98% · called it | D 99% · called it |
| New Jersey | Democrats | D 99% · called it | D 98% · called it |
| West Virginia | Republicans | D 1% · called it | D 2% · called it |
| Massachusetts | Democrats | D 98% · called it | D 99% · called it |
| Wyoming | Republicans | no price | D 2% · called it |
| Illinois | Democrats | D 98% · called it | D 99% · called it |
| Colorado | Democrats | D 99% · called it | D 99% · called it |
| Virginia | Democrats | D 99% · called it | D 99% · called it |
| Rhode Island | Democrats | D 99% · called it | D 99% · called it |
| Montana | Republicans | D 1% · called it | D <1% · called it |
| Nebraska | Republicans | D <1% · called it | D 1% · called it |
| South Dakota | Republicans | D <1% · called it | D 1% · called it |
| Idaho | Republicans | D <1% · called it | D <1% · called it |
Governor races, biggest upsets first
| State | Won by | Polymarket, day before | Kalshi, day before |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | Democrats | D 41% · missed | D 41% · missed |
| Florida | Republicans | D 36% · called it | D 39% · called it |
| Georgia | Democrats | D 72% · called it | D 71% · called it |
| Vermont | Republicans | D 31% · called it | D 25% · called it |
| Nevada | Democrats | D 77% · called it | D 74% · called it |
| Ohio | Democrats | D 84% · called it | D 83% · called it |
| Oregon | Democrats | D 85% · called it | D 82% · called it |
| Wisconsin | Democrats | D 86% · called it | D 83% · called it |
| New Hampshire | Republicans | D 14% · called it | no price |
| Iowa | Democrats | D 90% · called it | D 87% · called it |
| Nebraska | Republicans | D 11% · called it | no price |
| Oklahoma | Republicans | D 10% · called it | D 11% · called it |
| Alabama | Republicans | D 7% · called it | D 8% · called it |
| Arizona | Democrats | D 94% · called it | D 92% · called it |
| Tennessee | Republicans | D 5% · called it | D 7% · called it |
| Michigan | Democrats | D 94% · called it | D 94% · called it |
| South Carolina | Republicans | D 5% · called it | D 6% · called it |
| New Mexico | Democrats | D 95% · called it | D 95% · called it |
| Maine | Democrats | D 96% · called it | D 96% · called it |
| New York | Democrats | D 96% · called it | D 96% · called it |
| Colorado | Democrats | D 97% · called it | D 97% · called it |
| Arkansas | Republicans | no price | D 3% · called it |
| Minnesota | Democrats | D 98% · called it | D 97% · called it |
| Rhode Island | Democrats | D 98% · called it | D 97% · called it |
| Massachusetts | Democrats | D 97% · called it | D 97% · called it |
| Connecticut | Democrats | D 98% · called it | D 98% · called it |
| Wyoming | Republicans | no price | D 2% · called it |
| Illinois | Democrats | D 98% · called it | D 98% · called it |
| Pennsylvania | Democrats | D 99% · called it | D 99% · called it |
| Maryland | Democrats | D 99% · called it | D 99% · called it |
"Called it" means the exchange's Democratic price a day before the market settled was above 50% and Democrats won, or below 50% and they lost; a win by an independent counts as missed by both. Races where an exchange had no recorded price a day before are left out of its count. We record prices from when we began tracking each market, so a race tracked for less than a day has no "day before" price. Market prices are information, not investment advice.