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Attention vs. odds

Each dot is a live story with a market that traded at least $10k in the last day. Across: how many publishers covered it in 24 hours. Up: how far its odds moved in the same 24 hours. The corners are where the news and the market disagree.

Underreported Agree Overreported Quiet 0 10 20 30 01248 publishers in 24 hours odds moved, points US Carries Out New Strikes on Iran Near Strait of Hormuz — 6 publishers, odds −2 Ukraine Raises Death Toll From Russian Strike on Aid Center to 50 — 5 publishers, odds −1 Hundreds of Thousands Protest in France Over Cost of Living and Wages — 6 publishers, odds −2 Qatar Urges US and Iran to Pursue Peace Deal Amid Trump's War Threats — 9 publishers, odds −2 Vance, GOP figures blame Iran war for midterm losses as Democrats prepare to curb conflict — 4 publishers, odds −1 US Voters Reject Data Centers in Midterms, Fueling Democratic Blue Wave — 7 publishers, odds −28 Democrats Win Blue Wave in US Midterms, Taking Control of Congress — 10 publishers, odds 0 Anthropic IPO Valuation Drops to $1.2 Trillion Amid Tech Rout — 8 publishers, odds −17 Prediction Markets Foretold Democratic Midterm Victory — 5 publishers, odds −28 Elon Musk’s $446m Midterm Spending Fails to Stop Democratic Sweep — 4 publishers, odds −0 Abdul El-Sayed becomes first Muslim elected to US Senate in historic Michigan victory — 5 publishers, odds +1 Hegseth Faces Impeachment Threats and Scrutiny After GOP Midterm Losses — 5 publishers, odds −10 Trump Touts White House Ballroom After Midterm Losses — 1 publishers, odds +1 Israel tightens control in West Bank and Gaza as tensions rise — 1 publishers, odds −6 Yemen War Intensifies as Siege of Taiz Continues and Regional Alliances Shift — 2 publishers, odds +18 Pierce Brosnan Backs Callum Turner as James Bond; Pattinson and Hoult Screen Tested — 5 publishers, odds −12 Luka Doncic Scores 42 Points as Lakers Beat Heat, Drawing Praise from Giannis Antetokounmpo — 1 publishers, odds +5 Israel President to Name Candidate to Form Government on Sunday — 2 publishers, odds 0 California Governor Commutes All Death Sentences for 548 Inmates — 3 publishers, odds −0 Jeffries Launches Bid for House Speaker After Democratic Midterm Sweep — 3 publishers, odds 0 SMU Rout Virginia Tech 51-28 in Dallas ACC Football Clash — 2 publishers, odds −3 Big Ten Admits Official Error in Oregon's Loss to UCLA — 2 publishers, odds −4 Senator Chris Murphy Released From Hospital After Stroke — 3 publishers, odds −0 Baylor Bears Prepare for Homecoming Matchup Against Iowa State in Week 10 — 1 publishers, odds +0 Chiefs Beat Raiders as Las Vegas Prepares for Week 9 Clash With 49ers — 1 publishers, odds +1 Trump faces lame-duck period amid fears of aggressive foreign policy — 2 publishers, odds +1 LSU Coach Lane Kiffin Laments End of Annual Rivalry Game With Alabama in 2027 — 1 publishers, odds −1 Miami WR Malachi Toney to Have Surgery for High Ankle Sprain Ahead of Notre Dame Game — 1 publishers, odds +1 GTA 6 Release Date Confirmed as Fans Await New Details — 2 publishers, odds +4 Missouri QB Austin Simmons Re-Signs for 2027, Skipping NFL Draft — 4 publishers, odds −1 DOJ Expands Probe Into Alaska Senate Race as Recount Fund Forms — 0 publishers, odds −0 LeBron James Cautions 76ers Against Finals Talk Despite Hot Start — 1 publishers, odds −0 SEC Scheduling Model Ends Annual LSU-Alabama Football Rivalry After This Season — 2 publishers, odds −1 UConn vs Michigan Preview: Odds and Picks for Hall of Fame Series Rematch — 2 publishers, odds −0 Cowboys' Stephen Jones Signals Defensive Needs Ahead of NFL Trade Deadline — 2 publishers, odds −2 Melania Trump Hosts Russian and Ukrainian Officials at White House to Celebrate Oleshky Ceasefire — 0 publishers, odds −1 Stevens withdraws from GWU event after endorsing Rogers in Michigan Senate race — 0 publishers, odds 0 Texas vs Missouri: SEC Showdown Preview and Predictions — 2 publishers, odds +1 Pistons Face 76ers in Eastern Conference Top Spot Battle — 1 publishers, odds −0 AI Rout Deepens in Asia as Rubio Confirms He Will Remain in Post — 0 publishers, odds −1
Dividing lines at 6 publishers and 7 points. Hover a dot for the story; click to open it.

Underreported 4

The odds moved; the news barely covered it. Something happened that coverage has not caught up with.

Overreported 4

Wall-to-wall coverage; the odds did not budge. Traders do not think it changes the outcome.

News and market agree 2

Big story, big move.

Quiet on both sides 30

Little coverage, little movement.