Elon Musk’s $446m Midterm Spending Fails to Stop Democratic Sweep Hot: Odds moved 18 points in 24 hours

The tech billionaire contributed nearly half a billion dollars to Republican campaigns, but Democrats won every key race he targeted.

24 publishers · 44 articles · first seen 2 Nov 2026 · updated 9h ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

The odds

How the odds moved · Above $800 billion

Each tick is a source publishing on this story

Price data

Time	Chance of yes
now	51%
7 Nov, 00:30 UTC	51%
6 Nov, 23:40 UTC	49%
6 Nov, 23:19 UTC	60%
6 Nov, 21:23 UTC	37%
6 Nov, 20:09 UTC	38%
6 Nov, 16:50 UTC	34%
6 Nov, 16:20 UTC	35%
6 Nov, 14:41 UTC	33%
6 Nov, 13:20 UTC	34%
6 Nov, 12:08 UTC	40%
6 Nov, 10:05 UTC	36%
6 Nov, 09:44 UTC	35%
6 Nov, 05:38 UTC	33%
6 Nov, 05:25 UTC	37%
6 Nov, 03:01 UTC	40%
6 Nov, 02:07 UTC	37%
6 Nov, 01:52 UTC	36%
6 Nov, 01:09 UTC	32%
6 Nov, 00:05 UTC	39%
5 Nov, 22:18 UTC	41%
5 Nov, 21:26 UTC	60%
5 Nov, 19:57 UTC	50%
5 Nov, 19:21 UTC	59%
5 Nov, 17:06 UTC	44%
5 Nov, 16:21 UTC	48%
5 Nov, 14:32 UTC	51%
5 Nov, 13:23 UTC	40%
5 Nov, 03:16 UTC	58%
5 Nov, 01:56 UTC	50%
5 Nov, 00:01 UTC	52%
4 Nov, 22:42 UTC	29%
4 Nov, 21:58 UTC	52%
4 Nov, 17:56 UTC	64%
4 Nov, 05:31 UTC	65%
4 Nov, 03:26 UTC	46%
1 Nov, 19:52 UTC	69%
1 Nov, 18:33 UTC	66%
1 Nov, 17:56 UTC	68%
31 Oct, 20:43 UTC	67%
31 Oct, 17:06 UTC	66%

The story so far

24 publishers have covered this in 44 articles since 2 Nov 2026. Fortune published first, on 2 November at 21:43 UTC; Axios followed 32h 49m later. The most recent article, from The Hill, appeared on 6 November at 22:30 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: Axios (major outlet), Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), The Hollywood Reporter (major outlet), WIRED (major outlet), The Hill (major outlet), The Verge (major outlet), Bloomberg.com (major outlet), NPR Politics (major outlet), News Feed (major outlet), The Guardian US (major outlet), The New York Times (major outlet), Fortune and 12 more, all listed under Sources below.

3 prediction markets price this story:

Above $800 billion — the market puts it at 51%, with $668 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Dec 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Forbes reports Elon Musk's net worth exceeds $800 billion on December 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the source of truth, assuming any financial report counts instead of only Forbes.
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? — the market puts it at 0%, with $18k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 8 Nov 2028. The market resolves to Yes if Elon Musk wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, as confirmed by official party sources. It resolves to No in all other cases, including if he loses the nomination or if a different candidate replaces him before the election. Readers often mistake the resolution source for news reports rather than official Republican Party announcements.
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? — the market puts it at 0%, with $21k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 8 Nov 2028. The Yes outcome occurs if Elon Musk wins the 2028 US Presidential Election as determined by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC calling the race for him. The No outcome applies if he does not win according to those sources or if another candidate is inaugurated on January 20, 2029. Readers often mistake the deadline for when the news outlets call the race rather than the inauguration date.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Above $800 billion at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

2 Nov, 21:43Fortune After topping 2024’s donor list, Elon Musk said he’d do ‘a lot less.’ Since then, he’s given more than George Soros has personally in his lifetime69%
4 Nov, 06:32Axios Musk laughs off election drubbing with space lasers joke65%▼4 points since the previous source
4 Nov, 06:53Times of India 'Guess my election-interfering space lasers didn’t work': Musk on $445m failed gamble65%
4 Nov, 12:09Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Musk makes light of defeats after record spend on Republican candidates65%
4 Nov, 13:36The Hollywood Reporter Elon Musk Responds After His Record $474 Million Bet on Republicans Ends in Blowout65%
4 Nov, 13:43BBC Technology Elon Musk's millions fail to deliver Texas for the Republicans in fierce midterms65%
4 Nov, 14:15WIRED ‘Musk’ Director Alex Gibney Wants to Know if Democrats Can Now Hold Elon Musk Accountable65%
4 Nov, 14:53The Hill Musk jokes about GOP losses after spending big in midterms65%
4 Nov, 15:33The Verge Not even $200 million could help Elon Musk buy Texas65%
4 Nov, 15:56Quartz Musk's $483 million and 7 other shifts in 2026 midterm money65%
Show 34 later sources
1. 4 Nov, 15:56Fortune ‘A massive rebuke of the last two years of the Trump administration’: elections expert stunned by Elon Musk lighting half a billion dollars on fire65%
2. 4 Nov, 16:06WIRED Voters Set $400 Million of Elon Musk’s Money on Fire65%
3. 4 Nov, 16:12Quartz 6 donors and donor groups, from Musk to crypto firms, behind 2026 campaign cash65%
4. 4 Nov, 17:01Engadget Elon Musk spent nearly $500 million on the midterms and lost big-time65%
5. 4 Nov, 17:15Bloomberg Technology Musk’s Texas Gamble Becomes Liability With Democrats Taking Over65%
6. 4 Nov, 17:16Times of India Midterm gamble, sliding stocks: Elon Musk's pricey election hangover continues65%
7. 4 Nov, 17:31Inc.Only Elon Musk Could Lose Nearly $500 Million and Respond With a Shrug Emoji65%
8. 4 Nov, 18:11Rolling Stone The Midterms’ Biggest Loser Is Elon Musk64%▼1 points since the previous source
9. 4 Nov, 18:39Deadline Media Stocks, Markets Surge In Post-Election Rally64%
10. 4 Nov, 20:31Fortune ‘He basically gets to steer a political party’: Elon Musk is $474 million poorer post-election, but it may not have deterred his influence on 202864%
11. 4 Nov, 21:06France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines Musk-backed candidates lose midterms despite financial backing64%
12. 4 Nov, 21:11NPR Politics Elon Musk will face scrutiny from Democrats in Washington and Texas after midterms64%
13. 4 Nov, 21:45The Verge 17 better ways Elon Musk could have wasted $446 million64%
14. 4 Nov, 22:38News Feed ‘The money didn’t work’: Big Tech’s $600mn midterm campaign falls flat52%▼12 points since the previous source
15. 5 Nov, 02:00The Guardian Elon Musk’s nearly half a billion dollars in midterms spending was a flop50%▼3 points since the previous source
16. 5 Nov, 02:14Times of India US Midterms: Elon Musk, 3 other tech billionaires among Trump’s biggest backers50%
17. 5 Nov, 05:57Times of India Google founder publicly announced that he will give his billions to Elon Musk58%▲8 points since the previous source
18. 5 Nov, 06:30Bloomberg.com Republicans Growing Blame Game, Musk Stocks Erase $130 Billion58%
19. 5 Nov, 06:43Times of India Elon Musk's nearly $500m US midterm gamble backfires: Tesla, SpaceX stocks take a hit58%
20. 5 Nov, 07:43Times of India Michael Dell loses $10 billion-plus in hours after Dell CEO sees biggest fall in a day58%
21. 5 Nov, 11:00The Guardian US Was Elon Musk the US midterms' biggest loser? – Stateside with Kai and Carter58%
22. 5 Nov, 11:29France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines US midterms: Elon Musk fails $440 million bet as Republicans lose58%
23. 5 Nov, 11:33Fortune Elon Musk may have bought control of the post-Trump Republican Party … but it cost him $30 billion of his net worth58%
24. 5 Nov, 12:23Protos Elon Musk spent $400M on Republican super PACs during midterms58%
25. 5 Nov, 15:00South China Morning Post After US$474m gamble flops, what happens now to Elon Musk’s Tesla, SpaceX and China ties?51%▼7 points since the previous source
26. 5 Nov, 15:34The New York Times Tech Billionaires Face Tricky Political Waters After Democratic Midterm Sweep51%
27. 5 Nov, 16:45Fortune Elon Musk spent at least $225 million in Texas. The governor-elect who sued for Abbott emails and vowed a data center freeze won anyway48%▼3 points since the previous source
28. 5 Nov, 19:48News Feed Wall Street mega-donors clobbered by Democratic sweep59%▲11 points since the previous source
29. 6 Nov, 02:45Times of India 'Vote red today!' Elon Musk deletes pro-Republican posts after spending $458 million37%▼22 points since the previous source
30. 6 Nov, 03:38Latest articles Musk has little to show for his record spending on Republican campaigns in U.S. midterms40%▲3 points since the previous source
31. 6 Nov, 08:00Fortune ‘The nail that sticks out gets hammered first’: Elon Musk’s net worth falls $113 billion from Tesla and SpaceX drops33%▼7 points since the previous source
32. 6 Nov, 12:03All Content from Business Insider 9 tech titans took a $150 billion wealth hit during Thursday's AI stock plunge — with Elon Musk alone losing $80 billion36%▲3 points since the previous source
33. 6 Nov, 14:00News Feed Alas, poor Elon34%▼2 points since the previous source
34. 6 Nov, 22:30The Hill Musk's big bet on Republicans comes up short37%▲3 points since the previous source
NowCurrent odds51%

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

Musk's big bet on Republicans comes up short The Hill · 9h ago
Alas, poor Elon News Feed · 17h ago
Wall Street mega-donors clobbered by Democratic sweep News Feed · 35h ago
Tech Billionaires Face Tricky Political Waters After Democratic Midterm Sweep The New York Times · 40h ago
Was Elon Musk the US midterms' biggest loser? – Stateside with Kai and Carter The Guardian US · 44h ago
Republicans Growing Blame Game, Musk Stocks Erase $130 Billion Bloomberg.com · 2d ago

Show 38 more sources

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

Kalshi Above $800 billion 51% +18 $668 24hends 31 Dec 2026
Does the market have this right?

Wrong market?

What's wrong
Polymarket Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? 0% $18k 24hends 8 Nov 2028
Does the market have this right?

Wrong market?

What's wrong
Polymarket Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? 0% $21k 24hends 8 Nov 2028
Does the market have this right?

Wrong market?

What's wrong

Have your say

Your call. How does this end?

Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls

Email me when the odds move

In this story

Embed this story

Paste this into any web page to show the live odds, with a link back here.

<iframe src="https://newsmarkets.org/embed/story/musk-jokes-after-spending-record-445m-in-midterms-94109" width="100%" height="420" style="border:0;max-width:640px" loading="lazy" title="Elon Musk’s $446m Midterm Spending Fails to Stop Democratic Sweep · NewsMarkets"></iframe>