Democrats Win Midterms; Trump Faces New Legislative Landscape
Democrats secure a historic majority, forcing Republicans to abandon agenda items while Big Tech pivots its political strategy.
Kalshi Democrats, ≥8% 99%35 stories · 60 markets · RSS
How much the press wrote about Donald Trump each day, and what its busiest market did over the same days.
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 11% |
| 7 Nov, 03:52 UTC | 11% |
| 6 Nov, 21:52 UTC | 12% |
| 6 Nov, 21:01 UTC | 11% |
| 6 Nov, 20:46 UTC | 11% |
| 6 Nov, 10:49 UTC | 12% |
| 5 Nov, 21:11 UTC | 13% |
| 5 Nov, 18:43 UTC | 12% |
| 5 Nov, 18:20 UTC | 13% |
| 5 Nov, 17:06 UTC | 12% |
| 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | 13% |
| 5 Nov, 09:55 UTC | 12% |
| 5 Nov, 06:11 UTC | 13% |
| 5 Nov, 04:19 UTC | 12% |
| 5 Nov, 03:51 UTC | 11% |
| 4 Nov, 22:42 UTC | 11% |
| 4 Nov, 20:14 UTC | 12% |
| 4 Nov, 19:35 UTC | 11% |
| 4 Nov, 19:04 UTC | 10% |
| 4 Nov, 17:49 UTC | 10% |
| 4 Nov, 17:20 UTC | 11% |
| 4 Nov, 16:42 UTC | 12% |
| 4 Nov, 14:44 UTC | 13% |
| 4 Nov, 14:23 UTC | 14% |
| 4 Nov, 13:53 UTC | 13% |
| 4 Nov, 11:32 UTC | 14% |
| 4 Nov, 10:05 UTC | 14% |
| 4 Nov, 09:50 UTC | 16% |
| 4 Nov, 08:53 UTC | 16% |
| 4 Nov, 04:47 UTC | 16% |
| 4 Nov, 04:10 UTC | 17% |
| 4 Nov, 02:12 UTC | 19% |
| 4 Nov, 01:42 UTC | 20% |
| 3 Nov, 23:10 UTC | 19% |
| 3 Nov, 22:56 UTC | 19% |
| 3 Nov, 16:55 UTC | 18% |
| 3 Nov, 16:04 UTC | 17% |
| 3 Nov, 14:39 UTC | 19% |
| 3 Nov, 03:05 UTC | 18% |
| 3 Nov, 02:37 UTC | 17% |
| 3 Nov, 00:33 UTC | 18% |
| 3 Nov, 00:05 UTC | 17% |
| 2 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 18% |
| 2 Nov, 19:40 UTC | 17% |
| 2 Nov, 15:11 UTC | 18% |
| 2 Nov, 09:39 UTC | 17% |
| 2 Nov, 09:25 UTC | 16% |
| 1 Nov, 17:20 UTC | 18% |
| 1 Nov, 13:46 UTC | 17% |
| 1 Nov, 11:19 UTC | 18% |
| 1 Nov, 10:14 UTC | 17% |
| 1 Nov, 09:42 UTC | 18% |
| 1 Nov, 08:39 UTC | 17% |
| 31 Oct, 22:50 UTC | 18% |
| 31 Oct, 22:21 UTC | 17% |
| 31 Oct, 19:10 UTC | 18% |
| 31 Oct, 18:04 UTC | 17% |
| 31 Oct, 17:21 UTC | 17% |
Democrats secure a historic majority, forcing Republicans to abandon agenda items while Big Tech pivots its political strategy.
Kalshi Democrats, ≥8% 99%The US military conducts limited strikes on Iranian targets in the Strait of Hormuz, including an air defense system on Qeshm Island, as diplomatic efforts continue.
Qatari mediators push for an agreement as President Trump weighs a decision on further military action against Iran.
Prime Minister Andy Burnham pledges a root-and-branch review of childhood support while navigating US election outcomes and domestic controversy over slavery remarks.
Kalshi Before Jan 1, 2027 3%JD Vance and other Republicans cite the Iran war for their electoral defeat while Democrats move to limit the conflict.
President Trump appoints immigration hardliner Stephen Miller as White House chief of staff, replacing Susie Wiles following midterm losses.
Polymarket Will Katie Miller be the next White House Press Secretary? 7% +4Voters overwhelmingly rejected data center measures in the US midterms, boosting Democrats and challenging the AI industry's expansion plans.
Democrats secure majorities in the House and Senate, setting up a legislative battle with President Trump over policy priorities.
Democrats secure a historic majority in the House and Senate, driven by young voters and rural swing areas, while markets react to potential policy shifts.
Kalshi Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House AND hold 49 or more seats in the Senate? 99%Democrats win control of Congress in midterm elections, citing voter frustration with inflation and high prices under President Donald Trump.
Kalshi During his presidential term 26%Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket accurately predicted the Democratic sweep before polls closed, though a New York Times analysis found their overall accuracy matched traditional forecasts.
Kalshi Democrats, 12 to 14% 10% −28Tech stocks led a global rout as investors feared tighter AI regulation following the Democratic midterm victory, prompting Donald Trump to blame his political opponents.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva defeats Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazil's presidential election, while the defeated candidate escapes to the United States with alleged help from a Javier Milei adviser.
Kalshi Before Dec 1, 2026 1%Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer spoke with Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng to finalize preparations for the upcoming meeting.
A New York appeals court considers Trump's bid to overturn his hush money conviction while judges dismiss his defamation suits against the Wall Street Journal and Harvard.
Kalshi Before Trump's term ends 6%National averages reach historic levels as high diesel and jet fuel costs impact voters, airlines, and businesses ahead of the midterms.
Kalshi Above $7.40 3%Donald Trump accepts the US midterm election results despite prior interference efforts, as Democrats secure control of Congress and key governorships.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth faces bipartisan impeachment threats and internal criticism following Republican midterm losses, though President Trump vows to keep him in his post.
Polymarket Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30? 20% −5President Trump hosted reporters at the White House to showcase construction progress on the East Wing ballroom, marking his first public remarks following Republican midterm defeats.
Kalshi Before Election Day 11%Young voters, including men who previously backed Donald Trump, shifted heavily toward the Democratic Party, driven by concerns over housing affordability and economic pressures.
Prime Minister Mark Carney presents a budget aimed at reducing economic dependence on the United States as trade negotiations with President Donald Trump continue.
Kalshi Canada 2% −1Donald Trump signed a proclamation designating the Oval Office and Cabinet Room as national monuments, aiming to prevent future presidents from altering their decor.
Millions celebrate the festival of lights with traditional rituals and eco-friendly innovations while US President Donald Trump hosts events for the Indian diaspora.
Kalshi By 2030 67%A federal judge issued a 14-day restraining order blocking the project shortly after the National Capital Planning Commission approved the plan.
Traders unwound conflict bets after Vice President JD Vance linked Republican midterm losses to the war, accelerating expectations for a diplomatic off-ramp.
Democrats' control of Congress shifts focus to energy affordability, boosting renewable sector confidence after years of hostility from the Trump administration.
Polymarket Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? 68%Analysts predict the embattled president will pivot to international affairs and executive orders to maintain influence after losing congressional control.
European leaders and officials warn that Donald Trump remains a significant global threat, rejecting the notion that his electoral defeat signals a return to traditional US foreign policy.
DHS states the suspect planned to assassinate Trump and was found with three weapons by Secret Service officers.
The president announced the halt of approximately $4bn in annual funding, citing that the country no longer needs it.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth authorized additional military assets in Washington, D.C., prompting calls from local officials to recall the troops.
Democrats seize control of Congress, prompting Republican infighting over the Iran war while Trump prepares to use his veto power.
Polymarket Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? 0%Calley Means attacks White House staff in a podcast interview following his departure from the administration.
The Department of Justice sends target letters to Democrats while the Republican campaign establishes a recount fund amid confusion over two candidates named Dan Sullivan.
Democrat Xavier Becerra defeats Republican Steve Hilton to succeed Gavin Newsom as governor of California.
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