Democrats, 12 to 14%
Why it moved: −13 points at 07:59 UTC, after BBC News: Did a data centre revolt affect the US mid-term election results? — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 10% |
| 7 Nov, 06:46 UTC | 9% |
| 7 Nov, 06:25 UTC | 6% |
| 7 Nov, 05:30 UTC | 1% |
| 7 Nov, 05:02 UTC | 6% |
| 7 Nov, 03:52 UTC | 10% |
| 7 Nov, 02:24 UTC | 15% |
| 7 Nov, 01:13 UTC | 16% |
| 7 Nov, 00:01 UTC | 17% |
| 6 Nov, 22:49 UTC | 15% |
| 6 Nov, 21:38 UTC | 26% |
| 6 Nov, 19:25 UTC | 24% |
| 6 Nov, 18:19 UTC | 19% |
| 6 Nov, 17:12 UTC | 20% |
| 6 Nov, 16:05 UTC | 25% |
| 6 Nov, 14:56 UTC | 27% |
| 6 Nov, 13:49 UTC | 19% |
| 6 Nov, 11:29 UTC | 22% |
| 6 Nov, 10:20 UTC | 24% |
| 6 Nov, 09:09 UTC | 17% |
| 6 Nov, 07:59 UTC | 24% |
| 6 Nov, 06:49 UTC | 37% |
| 6 Nov, 03:15 UTC | 43% |
| 6 Nov, 02:07 UTC | 44% |
| 6 Nov, 00:55 UTC | 36% |
| 5 Nov, 23:44 UTC | 34% |
| 5 Nov, 22:32 UTC | 52% |
| 5 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 66% |
| 5 Nov, 20:20 UTC | 69% |
| 5 Nov, 19:07 UTC | 70% |
| 5 Nov, 15:41 UTC | 71% |
| 5 Nov, 14:32 UTC | 69% |
| 5 Nov, 13:23 UTC | 75% |
| 5 Nov, 08:37 UTC | 77% |
| 5 Nov, 07:24 UTC | 76% |
| 5 Nov, 06:11 UTC | 75% |
| 5 Nov, 02:39 UTC | 72% |
| 5 Nov, 01:28 UTC | 68% |
| 5 Nov, 00:16 UTC | 62% |
| 4 Nov, 23:04 UTC | 53% |
| 4 Nov, 21:58 UTC | 62% |
| 4 Nov, 20:45 UTC | 58% |
| 4 Nov, 19:35 UTC | 59% |
| 4 Nov, 18:27 UTC | 65% |
| 4 Nov, 17:20 UTC | 71% |
| 4 Nov, 16:13 UTC | 63% |
| 4 Nov, 14:59 UTC | 76% |
| 4 Nov, 12:40 UTC | 69% |
| 4 Nov, 11:32 UTC | 56% |
| 4 Nov, 10:21 UTC | 67% |
| 4 Nov, 09:07 UTC | 70% |
| 4 Nov, 07:56 UTC | 68% |
| 4 Nov, 06:43 UTC | 56% |
| 4 Nov, 05:31 UTC | 28% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 46% |
| 4 Nov, 03:18 UTC | 14% |
| 4 Nov, 02:12 UTC | 20% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 24% |
| 3 Nov, 23:46 UTC | 18% |
| 3 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 16% |
| 3 Nov, 20:12 UTC | 17% |
| 3 Nov, 18:59 UTC | 16% |
| 3 Nov, 17:51 UTC | 13% |
| 3 Nov, 16:40 UTC | 14% |
| 3 Nov, 15:29 UTC | 15% |
| 3 Nov, 14:18 UTC | 13% |
| 3 Nov, 07:05 UTC | 16% |
| 3 Nov, 05:54 UTC | 15% |
| 3 Nov, 04:43 UTC | 14% |
| 3 Nov, 02:23 UTC | 15% |
| 3 Nov, 01:17 UTC | 14% |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | 15% |
| 2 Nov, 15:56 UTC | 14% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House national popular vote is at least 12% but less than 14%. It resolves to No if the margin falls outside that range. Readers often mistake the upper bound as inclusive, but the rule excludes 14% exactly.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 10%
- No 91%