Prediction Markets Foretold Democratic Midterm Victory Hot: $54k traded on its market in 24 hours
Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket accurately predicted the Democratic sweep before polls closed, though a New York Times analysis found their overall accuracy matched traditional forecasts.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story · 1 more published before price tracking began
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 10% |
| 7 Nov, 06:46 UTC | 9% |
| 7 Nov, 06:25 UTC | 6% |
| 7 Nov, 05:30 UTC | 1% |
| 7 Nov, 05:02 UTC | 6% |
| 7 Nov, 03:52 UTC | 10% |
| 7 Nov, 02:24 UTC | 15% |
| 7 Nov, 01:13 UTC | 16% |
| 7 Nov, 00:01 UTC | 17% |
| 6 Nov, 22:49 UTC | 15% |
| 6 Nov, 21:38 UTC | 26% |
| 6 Nov, 19:25 UTC | 24% |
| 6 Nov, 18:19 UTC | 19% |
| 6 Nov, 17:12 UTC | 20% |
| 6 Nov, 16:05 UTC | 25% |
| 6 Nov, 14:56 UTC | 27% |
| 6 Nov, 13:49 UTC | 19% |
| 6 Nov, 11:29 UTC | 22% |
| 6 Nov, 10:20 UTC | 24% |
| 6 Nov, 09:09 UTC | 17% |
| 6 Nov, 07:59 UTC | 24% |
| 6 Nov, 06:49 UTC | 37% |
| 6 Nov, 03:15 UTC | 43% |
| 6 Nov, 02:07 UTC | 44% |
| 6 Nov, 00:55 UTC | 36% |
| 5 Nov, 23:44 UTC | 34% |
| 5 Nov, 22:32 UTC | 52% |
| 5 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 66% |
| 5 Nov, 20:20 UTC | 69% |
| 5 Nov, 19:07 UTC | 70% |
| 5 Nov, 15:41 UTC | 71% |
| 5 Nov, 14:32 UTC | 69% |
| 5 Nov, 13:23 UTC | 75% |
| 5 Nov, 08:37 UTC | 77% |
| 5 Nov, 07:24 UTC | 76% |
| 5 Nov, 06:11 UTC | 75% |
| 5 Nov, 02:39 UTC | 72% |
| 5 Nov, 01:28 UTC | 68% |
| 5 Nov, 00:16 UTC | 62% |
| 4 Nov, 23:04 UTC | 53% |
| 4 Nov, 21:58 UTC | 62% |
| 4 Nov, 20:45 UTC | 58% |
| 4 Nov, 19:35 UTC | 59% |
| 4 Nov, 18:27 UTC | 65% |
| 4 Nov, 17:20 UTC | 71% |
| 4 Nov, 16:13 UTC | 63% |
| 4 Nov, 14:59 UTC | 76% |
| 4 Nov, 12:40 UTC | 69% |
| 4 Nov, 11:32 UTC | 56% |
| 4 Nov, 10:21 UTC | 67% |
| 4 Nov, 09:07 UTC | 70% |
| 4 Nov, 07:56 UTC | 68% |
| 4 Nov, 06:43 UTC | 56% |
| 4 Nov, 05:31 UTC | 28% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 46% |
| 4 Nov, 03:18 UTC | 14% |
| 4 Nov, 02:12 UTC | 20% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 24% |
| 3 Nov, 23:46 UTC | 18% |
| 3 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 16% |
| 3 Nov, 20:12 UTC | 17% |
| 3 Nov, 18:59 UTC | 16% |
| 3 Nov, 17:51 UTC | 13% |
| 3 Nov, 16:40 UTC | 14% |
| 3 Nov, 15:29 UTC | 15% |
| 3 Nov, 14:18 UTC | 13% |
| 3 Nov, 07:05 UTC | 16% |
| 3 Nov, 05:54 UTC | 15% |
| 3 Nov, 04:43 UTC | 14% |
| 3 Nov, 02:23 UTC | 15% |
| 3 Nov, 01:17 UTC | 14% |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | 15% |
| 2 Nov, 15:56 UTC | 14% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Democrats, 12 to 14% respond.
The story so far
14 publishers have covered this in 19 articles since 2 Nov 2026. The Guardian Business published first, on 2 November at 11:00 UTC; Axios followed 28h 36m later. The most recent article, from Hacker News, appeared on 7 November at 03:50 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: The Guardian Business (major outlet), Axios (major outlet), Bloomberg Markets (major outlet), The Hill (major outlet), The Economist (major outlet), News Feed (major outlet), The New York Times (major outlet), The Block, Fortune, Cointelegraph.com News, decrypt.co, theinformation.com and 2 more, all listed under Sources below.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Democrats, 12 to 14% — the market puts it at 10%, with $54k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 3 Nov 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House national popular vote is at least 12% but less than 14%. It resolves to No if the margin falls outside that range. Readers often mistake the upper bound as inclusive, but the rule excludes 14% exactly.
- Democrats, ≥8% — the market puts it at 99%, closing 3 Feb 2027. The outcome is Yes if Democrats win the national House popular vote by at least 8 percentage points over Republicans in the November 3, 2026 general election. The outcome is No if that margin falls below 8 percentage points or if Republicans lead. Readers often mistake this for a Senate race or confuse the date with the 2024 elections.
- Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? — the market puts it at 68%, with $4k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 8 Nov 2028. The Yes outcome occurs if a Democrat wins the presidency, while No applies if a Republican wins. The market resolves once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same party, or based on who is inaugurated if they do not agree by January 20, 2029.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Democrats, 12 to 14% at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- The Guardian BusinessPrediction market bettors are the new political pundits. Why are we listening to them? | Judith Levine—
- AxiosPrediction markets have a lot riding on the blue wave15%
- Bloomberg MarketsMidterm Election Trading on Kalshi and Polymarket Lags Prediction Market Boom14%▼1 points since the previous source
- The BlockPrediction markets bet on Democratic sweep of House, Senate in midterm elections13%▼1 points since the previous source
- FortuneKalshi’s midterm trading tops $1.4 billion as traders bet on a Democratic sweep of Congress16%▲3 points since the previous source
- Cointelegraph.com NewsUS midterms: Prediction markets favor Democrats in key crypto races16%
- decrypt.coMidterms Blue Wave Makes $917K for One Polymarket Trader, If Alaska Doesn’t Flip56%▲40 points since the previous source
- Bloomberg MarketsCredit Traders Make Big Post-Midterm Bet on Data-Center Slowdown69%▲13 points since the previous source
- Bloomberg MarketsPrediction Markets Won Big Last Night76%▲7 points since the previous source
- The HillPrediction markets foresaw Democratic dominance in midterms elections58%▼18 points since the previous source
Show 9 later sources
- The EconomistWhat markets make of the midterms58%
- The HillDemocrats won big on Election Day. Prediction markets gave an early glimpse62%▲4 points since the previous source
- News FeedWall Street bets Democratic sweep will empower moderates in Washington77%▲15 points since the previous source
- theinformation.comHow Kalshi Is Spinning Up New Markets for Big Investors75%▼2 points since the previous source
- Bloomberg MarketsWhat Does a Democratic Congress Mean for Markets?24%▼51 points since the previous source
- FortunePrediction markets had a great election night: Now bettors are turning to which Trump officials could leave first25%▲1 points since the previous source
- QuartzKalshi and Polymarket claim 98% accuracy in calling midterm races20%▼5 points since the previous source
- The New York TimesResearchers Identify Suspicious Activity on Kalshi and Polymarket Before Times/Siena Poll Release15%▼5 points since the previous source
- Hacker NewsShow HN: Did prediction markets do any predicting this midterms?15%
- Current odds10%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Researchers Identify Suspicious Activity on Kalshi and Polymarket Before Times/Siena Poll Release The New York Times ·
- What Does a Democratic Congress Mean for Markets? Bloomberg Markets ·
- Wall Street bets Democratic sweep will empower moderates in Washington News Feed ·
- Democrats won big on Election Day. Prediction markets gave an early glimpse The Hill ·
- What markets make of the midterms The Economist ·
- Prediction markets foresaw Democratic dominance in midterms elections The Hill ·
Show 13 more sources
- Prediction Markets Won Big Last Night Bloomberg Markets ·
- Credit Traders Make Big Post-Midterm Bet on Data-Center Slowdown Bloomberg Markets ·
- Midterm Election Trading on Kalshi and Polymarket Lags Prediction Market Boom Bloomberg Markets ·
- Prediction markets have a lot riding on the blue wave Axios ·
- Prediction market bettors are the new political pundits. Why are we listening to them? | Judith Levine The Guardian Business ·
- Kalshi and Polymarket claim 98% accuracy in calling midterm races Quartz
- Prediction markets had a great election night: Now bettors are turning to which Trump officials could leave first Fortune
- How Kalshi Is Spinning Up New Markets for Big Investors theinformation.com
- Midterms Blue Wave Makes $917K for One Polymarket Trader, If Alaska Doesn’t Flip decrypt.co
- US midterms: Prediction markets favor Democrats in key crypto races Cointelegraph.com News
- Kalshi’s midterm trading tops $1.4 billion as traders bet on a Democratic sweep of Congress Fortune
- Prediction markets bet on Democratic sweep of House, Senate in midterm elections The Block
- Show HN: Did prediction markets do any predicting this midterms? Hacker News
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Democrats, 12 to 14% 10% −28
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Democrats, ≥8% 99%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Polymarket Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? 68%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Kalshi
- Polymarket
- Democrats
- Donald Trump
- New York Times