Democrats, ≥8%
Implied probability 99%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$34k
Liquidity$34k
Resolves3 Feb 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 5 Nov, 05:09 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 21:58 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Nov, 17:42 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 07:27 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Nov, 06:14 UTC | 79% |
| 4 Nov, 05:31 UTC | 98% |
| 3 Nov, 02:37 UTC | 77% |
| 1 Nov, 11:26 UTC | 75% |
| 1 Nov, 02:22 UTC | 70% |
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Democrats win the national House popular vote by at least 8 percentage points over Republicans in the November 3, 2026 general election. The outcome is No if that margin falls below 8 percentage points or if Republicans lead. Readers often mistake this for a Senate race or confuse the date with the 2024 elections.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%
Stories on this market
- Democrats Win Midterms; Trump Faces New Legislative Landscape politics
- US Voters Reject Data Centers in Midterms, Fueling Democratic Blue Wave politics
- Prediction Markets Foretold Democratic Midterm Victory politics
- Trump Accepts Midterm Results as Democrats Sweep to Victory politics
- Democrats Sweep US Midterms, Exceeding 250 House Seats in Blue Wave politics
- Voter Frustration With Health Costs Fuels Democratic Midterm Victory politics
- Democratic Midterm Victory Boosts US Clean Energy Outlook politics