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What is moving and trading right now, and how often the market's favourite has actually won.

Biggest 24-hour moves

Open markets that traded at least $10k in the last day, by how far the odds moved.

Most traded in 24 hours

Did the market call it?

Favourite won 73% 42,662 of 58,223 resolved markets
On contested calls 69% 32,588 of 47,506 where the favourite was under 95%

Two-outcome markets resolved in the last 30 days. The favourite is whichever outcome was priced higher about a day before the market resolved. Near-certain favourites win almost every time, which is why the contested rate is shown on its own.

By category

Category Resolved Favourite won Contested calls Won when contested
Sports 46,932 70% 42,153 67%
Weather 2,334 87% 1,340 78%
Crypto 1,621 92% 596 80%
Economy 1,193 78% 897 72%
Politics & world 1,112 91% 475 80%
Culture 631 86% 338 75%
Tech & science 298 93% 110 83%

Categories come from each market's Polymarket tags. A rate needs at least 10 markets behind it; "too few" means fewer than that.

Is 70% really 70%?

If the markets are well calibrated, favourites priced at 70% should win about 70% of the time. Points below the dashed line mean favourites at that price won less often than the market said.

Across 58,223 resolved markets, favourites were priced at 76% on average and won 73%. Those priced 70%–80% won 70% of the time (6,850 of 9,839).

50%60%70%80%90%100%50%60%70%80%90%100%Favourite's price a day outHow often it wonPriced right
Each point is a band of favourite prices; its line shows the range the true win rate likely falls in. Points on the dashed line mean favourites won exactly as often as priced.
Calibration data
Favourite pricedMarketsAverage priceWon
50%–60%13,68755%57%
60%–70%9,89565%62%
70%–80%9,83975%70%
80%–90%8,18885%80%
90%–95%5,89793%88%
95%–100%10,71798%94%

Close calls it got right

Favourites that lost

Recently resolved