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Democrats Win Midterms; Trump Faces New Legislative Landscape

Democrats secure a historic majority, forcing Republicans to abandon agenda items while Big Tech pivots its political strategy.

52 sources

Kalshi Democrats, ≥8% 99%

US Lawmakers Summon Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang Over Alleged Spy Ties

Top House Republicans have requested a closed-door briefing from Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang regarding his reported relationship with Alice Huang, an executive under investigation for spying for China.

26 sources

Polymarket Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2026? 30% +7

GOP Leaders Face Pressure After Midterm Losses as Democrats Eye Supreme Court Block

Republicans grapple with internal leadership disputes and personnel changes following midterm defeats, while Democrats prepare to block judicial nominees.

43 sources

UK PM Burnham targets radical youth support overhaul amid global political pressures

Prime Minister Andy Burnham pledges a root-and-branch review of childhood support while navigating US election outcomes and domestic controversy over slavery remarks.

21 sources

Kalshi Before Jan 1, 2027 3%

Colom Leads Hyde-Smith in Tight Mississippi Senate Race as Ballots Are Counted

Democrat Scott Colom holds a razor-thin lead over Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith in Mississippi, prompting legal scrutiny and voter roll concerns.

21 sources

Kalshi Republican party 11%

Vance, GOP figures blame Iran war for midterm losses as Democrats prepare to curb conflict Hot: $76k traded on its market in 24 hours

JD Vance and other Republicans cite the Iran war for their electoral defeat while Democrats move to limit the conflict.

16 sources Market moved first −25

Kalshi JD Vance: Republican, Marco Rubio: Republican 49%

Trump Names Stephen Miller Chief of Staff, Replacing Susie Wiles

President Trump appoints immigration hardliner Stephen Miller as White House chief of staff, replacing Susie Wiles following midterm losses.

23 sources

Polymarket Will Katie Miller be the next White House Press Secretary? 7% +4

US Voters Reject Data Centers in Midterms, Fueling Democratic Blue Wave Hot: $54k traded on its market in 24 hours

Voters overwhelmingly rejected data center measures in the US midterms, boosting Democrats and challenging the AI industry's expansion plans.

26 sources Market moved first +53

Kalshi Democrats, 12 to 14% 10% −28

California Voters Reject Billionaire Tax Proposal in Midterm Election Hot: Odds moved 18 points in 24 hours

The measure, opposed by tech executives including Sergey Brin, is projected to fail as voters reject the first-of-its-kind wealth tax.

26 sources

Kalshi At least 40% 99% +3

Democrats Win House and Senate in US Midterms

Democrats secure majorities in the House and Senate, setting up a legislative battle with President Trump over policy priorities.

37 sources

Kalshi Democratic Sweep 63% −1

Democrats Win Blue Wave in US Midterms, Taking Control of Congress Hot: $240k traded on its market in 24 hours

Democrats secure a historic majority in the House and Senate, driven by young voters and rural swing areas, while markets react to potential policy shifts.

36 sources Priced in

Kalshi Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House AND hold 49 or more seats in the Senate? 99%

Supreme Court Rejects DOJ Bid to Set Aside California Ballots Hot: Odds moved 18 points in 24 hours

The Supreme Court rejected the Justice Department's attempt to force California to discard ballots suspected of being cast by noncitizens, ending a major legal challenge before the midterms.

24 sources

Kalshi Before 2030 21% −4

Democrats sweep US midterms as voters reject Trump's economy

Democrats win control of Congress in midterm elections, citing voter frustration with inflation and high prices under President Donald Trump.

34 sources

Kalshi During his presidential term 26%

Prediction Markets Foretold Democratic Midterm Victory Hot: $54k traded on its market in 24 hours

Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket accurately predicted the Democratic sweep before polls closed, though a New York Times analysis found their overall accuracy matched traditional forecasts.

14 sources Odds −28

Kalshi Democrats, 12 to 14% 10% −28

Democrats flip key seats while Republicans hold others in US House election results

Democrats flipped several competitive and long-held Republican seats, including Missouri's 2nd District, while Republicans retained control of other open races.

14 sources

Resolved Republican Party No 9h ago

Democrats Flip Texas Senate, Governorship and Attorney General in Historic Midterm Upset

James Talarico and Gina Hinojosa defeat Republicans Ken Paxton and Greg Abbott, while Nathan Johnson flips the attorney general's office.

31 sources

Resolved Republican Party No 9h ago

Elon Musk’s $446m Midterm Spending Fails to Stop Democratic Sweep Hot: Odds moved 18 points in 24 hours

The tech billionaire contributed nearly half a billion dollars to Republican campaigns, but Democrats won every key race he targeted.

24 sources

Kalshi Above $800 billion 51% +18

Democrats Sweep Texas Elections, Flipping State Blue in Historic Midterm Win

Democrats win every statewide office in Texas, including the governorship and Senate, marking a historic shift in the state's political landscape.

18 sources

Polymarket Will the Democrats win Texas in the 2028 Presidential Election? 36% −2

Trump Faces Appeals Court on Hush Money Conviction as Judges Dismiss Other Lawsuits

A New York appeals court considers Trump's bid to overturn his hush money conviction while judges dismiss his defamation suits against the Wall Street Journal and Harvard.

20 sources

Kalshi Before Trump's term ends 6%

US Gas Prices Hit Record High for Election Day Amid Global Fuel Squeeze

National averages reach historic levels as high diesel and jet fuel costs impact voters, airlines, and businesses ahead of the midterms.

27 sources

Kalshi Above $7.40 3%

Trump Accepts Midterm Results as Democrats Sweep to Victory

Donald Trump accepts the US midterm election results despite prior interference efforts, as Democrats secure control of Congress and key governorships.

25 sources

Kalshi Democrats, ≥8% 99%

Abdul El-Sayed becomes first Muslim elected to US Senate in historic Michigan victory Hot: $1.0M traded on its market in 24 hours

The Democrat defeats Republican Mike Rogers, drawing record turnout in Dearborn and facing scrutiny over his stance on Israel.

30 sources

Kalshi Abdul El-Sayed, 4-6% 3%

Hegseth Faces Impeachment Threats and Scrutiny After GOP Midterm Losses Hot: $211k traded on its market in 24 hours

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth faces bipartisan impeachment threats and internal criticism following Republican midterm losses, though President Trump vows to keep him in his post.

14 sources Odds −10

Polymarket Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30? 20% −5

Amy Acton Wins Ohio Governor Race, Becoming First Female Governor

Democrat Amy Acton defeats Republican Vivek Ramaswamy to become Ohio's first female governor, ending 16 years of Republican control.

11 sources

Kalshi Amy Acton, 4-6% 2%

Trump Touts White House Ballroom After Midterm Losses

President Trump hosted reporters at the White House to showcase construction progress on the East Wing ballroom, marking his first public remarks following Republican midterm defeats.

15 sources

Kalshi Before Election Day 11%

NBC Leads TV Ratings as Democrats Win Midterms; Bluesky Sees Surge

NBC topped primetime viewership with over 31 million watchers as Democrats swept the midterms, while Fox News trailed and Bluesky hit peak usage.

17 sources

Keisha Lance Bottoms becomes first Black woman elected US governor in Georgia

Former Atlanta mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms defeats Republican Rick Jackson to become the first Black woman elected governor in the United States.

13 sources

Kalshi Bottoms, 5+ pts 100% +1

Gen Z Voters Deliver Strong Support to Democrats in US Midterms

Young voters, including men who previously backed Donald Trump, shifted heavily toward the Democratic Party, driven by concerns over housing affordability and economic pressures.

14 sources

Two Top DOJ Officials Resign Amid Trump Probe Scrutiny Hot: Odds moved 26 points in 24 hours

Assistant Attorney General John Eisenberg and U.S. Attorney Jason Reding Quiñones have resigned from the Department of Justice, according to Attorney General Todd Blanche.

7 sources

Kalshi John Roberts 15% −26

Trump declares Oval Office a national monument to preserve design

Donald Trump signed a proclamation designating the Oval Office and Cabinet Room as national monuments, aiming to prevent future presidents from altering their decor.

10 sources

Kalshi During Trump's term 7%

Mike Johnson Steps Down as House Speaker; Scalise and Jordan Vie for Minority Leader

Speaker Mike Johnson will not seek the minority leader role after midterm losses, while Steve Scalise and Jim Jordan launch bids to lead the diminished GOP conference.

10 sources

Kalshi Jim Jordan 60% −9

Israel President to Name Candidate to Form Government on Sunday Hot: $59k traded on its market in 24 hours

President Isaac Herzog will announce his choice between Benjamin Netanyahu and Gadi Eisenkot after parliament signals support for the rival.

34 sources

Kalshi Benjamin Netanyahu 7%

Democrats Win Key Races in Georgia, Retaining Senate Seat and Gaining Governorship

Jon Ossoff retains his US Senate seat while Keisha Lance Bottoms becomes Georgia's first Democratic governor in over two decades.

11 sources

Kalshi Jon Ossoff, ≥20% 1%

Judge Halts Construction of Trump's Triumphal Arch After Panel Approval Hot: Odds moved 26 points in 24 hours

A federal judge issued a 14-day restraining order blocking the project shortly after the National Capital Planning Commission approved the plan.

14 sources

Kalshi Before Jan 1, 2027 40% −26

Democrats Sweep US Midterms, Exceeding 250 House Seats in Blue Wave

Democrats expand their majority in the House of Representatives while key Senate races in Alaska and Mississippi remain undecided.

15 sources

Kalshi Republicans win 0%

Voter Frustration With Health Costs Fuels Democratic Midterm Victory

Democratic control of Congress follows voter anger over healthcare prices, setting up a legislative test on affordability relief.

11 sources

Kalshi Republicans win 0%

California Governor Commutes All Death Sentences for 548 Inmates

Gavin Newsom converts the sentences of all 548 inmates on California's death row to life without parole, citing moral objections and legal flaws.

17 sources

Kalshi Yes 19%

Jeffries Launches Bid for House Speaker After Democratic Midterm Sweep Hot: $153k traded on its market in 24 hours

Hakeem Jeffries formally seeks the speakership following a landslide Democratic victory, promising to focus on affordability and hold the administration accountable.

9 sources

Kalshi Hakeem Jeffries 91% −4

US Midterms Deliver Historic Firsts for Women and Minorities

Voters elected the first Black female governor, the first Muslim senator, and numerous other minority candidates to historic offices in the 2026 midterms.

11 sources

UK to double wait for permanent residency with exemptions for care workers

Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood unveils plans to extend settlement waits to 10 years, sparking criticism from the UNHCR and cabinet backlash over care worker exemptions.

9 sources

Kalshi Shabana Mahmood 19%