Jeffries Launches Bid for House Speaker After Democratic Midterm Sweep Hot: $153k traded on its market in 24 hours
Hakeem Jeffries formally seeks the speakership following a landslide Democratic victory, promising to focus on affordability and hold the administration accountable.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 91% |
| 7 Nov, 07:00 UTC | 91% |
| 7 Nov, 06:53 UTC | 91% |
| 7 Nov, 05:37 UTC | 91% |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | 91% |
| 7 Nov, 04:47 UTC | 91% |
| 7 Nov, 04:19 UTC | 91% |
| 7 Nov, 03:52 UTC | 90% |
| 7 Nov, 03:01 UTC | 92% |
| 7 Nov, 02:53 UTC | 91% |
| 7 Nov, 01:27 UTC | 92% |
| 7 Nov, 00:59 UTC | 93% |
| 7 Nov, 00:23 UTC | 93% |
| 6 Nov, 23:47 UTC | 93% |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | 93% |
| 6 Nov, 22:49 UTC | 93% |
| 6 Nov, 22:21 UTC | 94% |
| 6 Nov, 21:59 UTC | 94% |
| 6 Nov, 21:23 UTC | 94% |
| 6 Nov, 20:53 UTC | 95% |
| 6 Nov, 20:02 UTC | 94% |
| 6 Nov, 19:40 UTC | 94% |
| 6 Nov, 19:25 UTC | 94% |
| 6 Nov, 18:56 UTC | 94% |
| 6 Nov, 18:19 UTC | 93% |
| 6 Nov, 17:50 UTC | 94% |
| 6 Nov, 17:27 UTC | 91% |
| 6 Nov, 16:57 UTC | 93% |
| 6 Nov, 16:13 UTC | 93% |
| 6 Nov, 15:51 UTC | 96% |
| 6 Nov, 15:29 UTC | 94% |
| 6 Nov, 14:56 UTC | 96% |
| 6 Nov, 10:35 UTC | 95% |
| 6 Nov, 09:44 UTC | 95% |
| 6 Nov, 08:55 UTC | 95% |
| 6 Nov, 08:13 UTC | 95% |
| 6 Nov, 07:45 UTC | 95% |
| 6 Nov, 07:24 UTC | 95% |
| 6 Nov, 06:28 UTC | 95% |
| 6 Nov, 05:46 UTC | 95% |
| 6 Nov, 05:25 UTC | 95% |
| 6 Nov, 04:56 UTC | 94% |
| 6 Nov, 04:27 UTC | 94% |
| 6 Nov, 03:58 UTC | 94% |
| 6 Nov, 03:23 UTC | 94% |
| 6 Nov, 02:52 UTC | 94% |
| 6 Nov, 01:45 UTC | 95% |
| 6 Nov, 01:17 UTC | 96% |
| 6 Nov, 00:55 UTC | 96% |
| 5 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 93% |
| 5 Nov, 20:35 UTC | 90% |
| 5 Nov, 20:27 UTC | 91% |
| 5 Nov, 19:50 UTC | 94% |
| 5 Nov, 19:29 UTC | 92% |
| 5 Nov, 18:28 UTC | 93% |
| 5 Nov, 17:58 UTC | 92% |
| 5 Nov, 17:20 UTC | 95% |
| 5 Nov, 16:58 UTC | 95% |
| 5 Nov, 16:29 UTC | 94% |
| 5 Nov, 15:57 UTC | 93% |
| 5 Nov, 15:25 UTC | 89% |
| 5 Nov, 14:47 UTC | 92% |
| 5 Nov, 13:52 UTC | 79% |
| 5 Nov, 13:23 UTC | 80% |
| 5 Nov, 12:52 UTC | 81% |
| 5 Nov, 12:29 UTC | 77% |
| 5 Nov, 11:56 UTC | 81% |
| 5 Nov, 11:26 UTC | 79% |
| 5 Nov, 07:52 UTC | 82% |
| 5 Nov, 07:24 UTC | 86% |
| 5 Nov, 06:55 UTC | 87% |
| 5 Nov, 06:19 UTC | 86% |
| 5 Nov, 05:23 UTC | 84% |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | 82% |
| 5 Nov, 04:26 UTC | 86% |
| 5 Nov, 03:37 UTC | 81% |
| 5 Nov, 03:23 UTC | 91% |
| 5 Nov, 02:47 UTC | 91% |
| 5 Nov, 02:24 UTC | 82% |
| 5 Nov, 01:56 UTC | 80% |
| 5 Nov, 01:28 UTC | 75% |
| 5 Nov, 00:44 UTC | 74% |
| 5 Nov, 00:16 UTC | 73% |
| 4 Nov, 23:47 UTC | 73% |
| 4 Nov, 23:25 UTC | 74% |
| 4 Nov, 22:49 UTC | 81% |
| 4 Nov, 22:13 UTC | 80% |
| 4 Nov, 21:34 UTC | 90% |
| 4 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 90% |
| 4 Nov, 20:52 UTC | 88% |
| 4 Nov, 20:14 UTC | 89% |
| 4 Nov, 19:35 UTC | 90% |
| 4 Nov, 19:19 UTC | 95% |
| 4 Nov, 18:57 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Nov, 18:27 UTC | 94% |
| 4 Nov, 17:56 UTC | 92% |
| 4 Nov, 17:27 UTC | 89% |
| 4 Nov, 16:35 UTC | 90% |
| 4 Nov, 16:20 UTC | 90% |
| 4 Nov, 15:50 UTC | 90% |
| 4 Nov, 15:28 UTC | 90% |
| 4 Nov, 14:59 UTC | 87% |
| 4 Nov, 14:23 UTC | 86% |
| 4 Nov, 13:46 UTC | 85% |
| 4 Nov, 13:24 UTC | 86% |
| 4 Nov, 12:47 UTC | 87% |
| 4 Nov, 11:47 UTC | 86% |
| 4 Nov, 10:51 UTC | 83% |
| 4 Nov, 10:21 UTC | 86% |
| 4 Nov, 09:50 UTC | 81% |
| 4 Nov, 08:03 UTC | 87% |
| 4 Nov, 07:56 UTC | 85% |
| 4 Nov, 07:20 UTC | 81% |
| 4 Nov, 06:50 UTC | 79% |
| 4 Nov, 05:39 UTC | 88% |
| 4 Nov, 05:17 UTC | 83% |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | 82% |
| 4 Nov, 03:33 UTC | 85% |
| 4 Nov, 03:26 UTC | 86% |
| 4 Nov, 02:49 UTC | 84% |
| 4 Nov, 02:12 UTC | 74% |
| 4 Nov, 01:57 UTC | 92% |
| 3 Nov, 23:17 UTC | 92% |
| 3 Nov, 22:34 UTC | 91% |
| 3 Nov, 02:44 UTC | 90% |
| 2 Nov, 17:19 UTC | 90% |
| 2 Nov, 15:56 UTC | 91% |
| 2 Nov, 13:18 UTC | 91% |
| 1 Nov, 21:34 UTC | 90% |
| 1 Nov, 05:33 UTC | 88% |
| 31 Oct, 14:38 UTC | 89% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Hakeem Jeffries respond.
The story so far
9 publishers have covered this in 19 articles since 2 Nov 2026. Politico Congress published first, on 2 November at 09:45 UTC; Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera followed 44h 41m later. The most recent article, from Fox News Politics, appeared on 6 November at 18:49 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Politico Congress (major outlet), Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), NPR Politics (major outlet), Axios (major outlet), The Hill (major outlet), France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines, Fox News Politics, Times of India, News - South China Morning Post.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Hakeem Jeffries — the market puts it at 91%, with $129k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2031. The outcome is Yes if Hakeem Jeffries becomes Speaker of the House before January 1, 2031, and he was not previously Speaker. The outcome is No if he does not hold that position by the deadline or held it earlier than Mike Johnson. Readers often mistake the linked news story about an endorsement for the actual event required for resolution.
- Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? — the market puts it at 0%, with $5k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 8 Nov 2028. The market resolves to Yes if Hakeem Jeffries wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, as confirmed by a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. It resolves to No if he does not secure that specific outcome. Readers often mistakenly believe that any replacement nominee before election day would change the result, but the rules state that such changes do not affect the resolution.
- Hakeem Jeffries — the market puts it at 0%, with $153k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 7 Nov 2028. The outcome is Yes if Hakeem Jeffries wins and accepts the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028; otherwise, it is No. Readers often mistake the linked story about his stance on impeachment as relevant to this resolution. The only factor that matters is his acceptance of the 2028 nomination.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Hakeem Jeffries at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- Politico CongressWhat Hakeem Jeffries’ Albany years reveal about how he’d lead the House90%
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraHouse Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries hails midterm victory88%▼3 points since the previous source
- France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlinesREPLAY - US midterms: "Today begins the Great American comeback" (Hakeem Jeffries)88%
- NPR PoliticsHouse Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries declares "America is back"79%▼8 points since the previous source
- NPR PoliticsHakeem Jeffries is poised to become the first Black speaker of the House81%▲2 points since the previous source
- AxiosHakeem Jeffries gets the majority of his dreams81%
- The HillWatch live: Jeffries speaks after Democrats flip House in midterm sweep90%▲8 points since the previous source
- The HillJeffries taunts Speaker Johnson for saying polls were wrong96%▲6 points since the previous source
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraHakeem Jeffries promises ‘affordability’ focus after Democratic midterm win95%▼1 points since the previous source
- Fox News PoliticsHakeem Jeffries declares bid for House speaker after GOP's midterm massacre90%▼5 points since the previous source
Show 9 later sources
- Politico CongressHakeem Jeffries letter89%▼1 points since the previous source
- AxiosRead: Hakeem Jeffries' letter officially launching his bid for House speaker89%
- Politico CongressHakeem Jeffries announces run for speaker, promising 'dramatic change'89%
- Times of IndiaHakeem Jeffries launches bid for US House Speaker after Democratic sweep80%▼9 points since the previous source
- News - South China Morning PostWhy the next US House speaker won’t follow Nancy Pelosi’s Taiwan playbook79%▼1 points since the previous source
- Politico CongressKatherine Clark launches majority leader bid79%
- NPR PoliticsDemocrats ran on affordability. What's the party's plan?95%▲15 points since the previous source
- AxiosHouse Democrats "inundated" with calls telling them not to elect Jeffries speaker93%▼1 points since the previous source
- Fox News PoliticsReporter's Notebook: A user’s manual to upcoming leadership elections in the House and Senate93%
- Current odds91%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- House Democrats "inundated" with calls telling them not to elect Jeffries speaker Axios ·
- Democrats ran on affordability. What's the party's plan? NPR Politics ·
- Katherine Clark launches majority leader bid Politico Congress ·
- Hakeem Jeffries announces run for speaker, promising 'dramatic change' Politico Congress ·
- Read: Hakeem Jeffries' letter officially launching his bid for House speaker Axios ·
- Hakeem Jeffries letter Politico Congress ·
Show 13 more sources
- Hakeem Jeffries promises ‘affordability’ focus after Democratic midterm win Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- Jeffries taunts Speaker Johnson for saying polls were wrong The Hill ·
- Watch live: Jeffries speaks after Democrats flip House in midterm sweep The Hill ·
- Hakeem Jeffries gets the majority of his dreams Axios ·
- Hakeem Jeffries is poised to become the first Black speaker of the House NPR Politics ·
- House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries declares "America is back" NPR Politics ·
- House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries hails midterm victory Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- What Hakeem Jeffries’ Albany years reveal about how he’d lead the House Politico Congress ·
- Reporter's Notebook: A user’s manual to upcoming leadership elections in the House and Senate Fox News Politics
- Why the next US House speaker won’t follow Nancy Pelosi’s Taiwan playbook News - South China Morning Post
- Hakeem Jeffries launches bid for US House Speaker after Democratic sweep Times of India
- Hakeem Jeffries declares bid for House speaker after GOP's midterm massacre Fox News Politics
- REPLAY - US midterms: "Today begins the Great American comeback" (Hakeem Jeffries) France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Hakeem Jeffries 91% −4
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Polymarket Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? 0%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Hakeem Jeffries 0%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Hakeem Jeffries
- House Democrats
- Mike Johnson