Mike Johnson Steps Down as House Speaker; Scalise and Jordan Vie for Minority Leader

The story so far

10 publishers have covered this in 26 articles since 4 Nov 2026. Fox News Politics published first, on 4 November at 14:10 UTC; Politico Congress followed 57 min later. The most recent article, from Fox News Politics, appeared on 6 November at 20:42 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: Politico Congress (major outlet), Bloomberg.com (major outlet), Axios (major outlet), CBS News Politics (major outlet), The Hill (major outlet), The Guardian US (major outlet), NPR Politics (major outlet), Fox News Politics, Deadline, Roll Call.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• Jim Jordan — the market puts it at 60%, with $8k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 30 Nov 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Jim Jordan wins the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about impeachment predictions for the actual resolution criteria.
• Jim Jordan — the market puts it at 1%, with $732 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2031. The outcome is Yes if Jim Jordan becomes Speaker of the House before January 1, 2031, and Mike Johnson was the immediate predecessor in that role. The outcome is No if this specific sequence does not occur within the deadline. Readers often mistake the linked story about Mike Johnson stepping down as sufficient proof, but the market requires Jim Jordan to actually assume the Speakership afterward.
• Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? — the market puts it at 0%, closing 8 Nov 2028. The market resolves to Yes if Mike Johnson wins the 2028 US Presidential Election and No if he does not. The outcome depends on which candidate is called by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC simultaneously. Readers often mistake the deadline for the election date instead of the inauguration date.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.