Jim Jordan
Implied probability 1%
24-hour volume$732
Total volume$9k
Liquidity$9k
Resolves1 Jan 2031
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 7 Nov, 03:39 UTC | 1% |
| 7 Nov, 03:01 UTC | 1% |
| 7 Nov, 00:52 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Nov, 04:27 UTC | 1% |
| 5 Nov, 15:25 UTC | 1% |
| 5 Nov, 03:23 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 23:25 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 18:35 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 17:42 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 15:43 UTC | 5% |
| 3 Nov, 14:45 UTC | 9% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Jim Jordan becomes Speaker of the House before January 1, 2031, and Mike Johnson was the immediate predecessor in that role. The outcome is No if this specific sequence does not occur within the deadline. Readers often mistake the linked story about Mike Johnson stepping down as sufficient proof, but the market requires Jim Jordan to actually assume the Speakership afterward.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 100%