10 stories · 19 markets · RSS
How much the press wrote about United States each day, and what its busiest market did over the same days.
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through December 31, 2026?
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 7 Nov, 03:39 UTC | 0% |
| 7 Nov, 03:01 UTC | 0% |
| 7 Nov, 02:46 UTC | 0% |
| 7 Nov, 02:09 UTC | 0% |
| 7 Nov, 01:55 UTC | 1% |
| 7 Nov, 01:27 UTC | 3% |
| 7 Nov, 00:59 UTC | 4% |
| 7 Nov, 00:23 UTC | 9% |
| 6 Nov, 23:47 UTC | 23% |
| 6 Nov, 23:19 UTC | 25% |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | 20% |
| 6 Nov, 22:28 UTC | 16% |
| 6 Nov, 21:59 UTC | 21% |
| 6 Nov, 21:23 UTC | 25% |
| 6 Nov, 20:39 UTC | 30% |
| 6 Nov, 19:33 UTC | 28% |
| 6 Nov, 18:56 UTC | 30% |
| 6 Nov, 18:19 UTC | 30% |
| 6 Nov, 17:42 UTC | 30% |
| 6 Nov, 02:22 UTC | 28% |
| 6 Nov, 01:09 UTC | 28% |
| 6 Nov, 00:55 UTC | 28% |
| 6 Nov, 00:20 UTC | 28% |
| 5 Nov, 23:51 UTC | 28% |
| 5 Nov, 23:22 UTC | 28% |
| 5 Nov, 22:32 UTC | 29% |
| 5 Nov, 22:04 UTC | 30% |
| 5 Nov, 21:42 UTC | 28% |
| 5 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 26% |
| 5 Nov, 16:58 UTC | 30% |
| 5 Nov, 16:21 UTC | 31% |
| 5 Nov, 15:41 UTC | 31% |
| 5 Nov, 12:37 UTC | 32% |
| 5 Nov, 12:29 UTC | 31% |
| 5 Nov, 11:11 UTC | 30% |
| 5 Nov, 10:02 UTC | 30% |
| 5 Nov, 09:33 UTC | 30% |
| 5 Nov, 07:02 UTC | 28% |
| 5 Nov, 06:33 UTC | 28% |
| 5 Nov, 05:30 UTC | 28% |
| 5 Nov, 03:08 UTC | 29% |
| 5 Nov, 02:54 UTC | 28% |
| 5 Nov, 01:49 UTC | 31% |
| 5 Nov, 01:28 UTC | 31% |
| 5 Nov, 00:44 UTC | 32% |
| 4 Nov, 23:40 UTC | 30% |
| 4 Nov, 21:42 UTC | 31% |
| 4 Nov, 20:30 UTC | 30% |
| 4 Nov, 20:23 UTC | 31% |
| 4 Nov, 18:27 UTC | 33% |
| 4 Nov, 17:20 UTC | 35% |
| 4 Nov, 16:49 UTC | 33% |
| 4 Nov, 15:58 UTC | 30% |
| 4 Nov, 15:28 UTC | 28% |
| 4 Nov, 14:59 UTC | 28% |
| 4 Nov, 14:23 UTC | 28% |
| 4 Nov, 13:02 UTC | 28% |
| 4 Nov, 12:54 UTC | 28% |
| 4 Nov, 12:24 UTC | 28% |
| 4 Nov, 11:54 UTC | 28% |
The US military conducts limited strikes on Iranian targets in the Strait of Hormuz, including an air defense system on Qeshm Island, as diplomatic efforts continue.
Ukraine reports at least 50 dead in a Russian strike on an aid hub while Kyiv intensifies drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.
Qatari mediators push for an agreement as President Trump weighs a decision on further military action against Iran.
Beijing warns it will take necessary measures against new US sanctions while Washington demands immediate compliance with rare earth supply commitments.
The UK and US condemn the sentence handed to pro-democracy activist Joshua Wong for colluding with foreign entities under Beijing's national security law.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy anticipates a future meeting with Vladimir Putin following trilateral negotiations in Abu Dhabi, while also seeking increased US support after Democratic election victories.
Prime Minister Mark Carney presents a budget aimed at reducing economic dependence on the United States as trade negotiations with President Donald Trump continue.
Kalshi Canada 2% −1Tehran proposes reopening the vital shipping lane in exchange for sanctions relief, while South Korea expands naval patrols under US pressure.
The US military and State Department offer up to $20 million for details on Iranian nuclear facilities, equipment, and personnel.
Polymarket Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? 11% −1The justice minister orders an investigation into illegal mining while residents file a lawsuit against a Chinese mine for pollution.
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