US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through December 31, 2026?
Why it moved: −14 points at 00:23 UTC, after Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: Iran war live: Qatar says US, Iran should not wait to reach a peace deal — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 7 Nov, 03:39 UTC | 0% |
| 7 Nov, 03:01 UTC | 0% |
| 7 Nov, 02:46 UTC | 0% |
| 7 Nov, 02:09 UTC | 0% |
| 7 Nov, 01:55 UTC | 1% |
| 7 Nov, 01:27 UTC | 3% |
| 7 Nov, 00:59 UTC | 4% |
| 7 Nov, 00:23 UTC | 9% |
| 6 Nov, 23:47 UTC | 23% |
| 6 Nov, 23:19 UTC | 25% |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | 20% |
| 6 Nov, 22:28 UTC | 16% |
| 6 Nov, 21:59 UTC | 21% |
| 6 Nov, 21:23 UTC | 25% |
| 6 Nov, 20:39 UTC | 30% |
| 6 Nov, 19:33 UTC | 28% |
| 6 Nov, 18:56 UTC | 30% |
| 6 Nov, 18:19 UTC | 30% |
| 6 Nov, 17:42 UTC | 30% |
| 6 Nov, 02:22 UTC | 28% |
| 6 Nov, 01:09 UTC | 28% |
| 6 Nov, 00:55 UTC | 28% |
| 6 Nov, 00:20 UTC | 28% |
| 5 Nov, 23:51 UTC | 28% |
| 5 Nov, 23:22 UTC | 28% |
| 5 Nov, 22:32 UTC | 29% |
| 5 Nov, 22:04 UTC | 30% |
| 5 Nov, 21:42 UTC | 28% |
| 5 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 26% |
| 5 Nov, 16:58 UTC | 30% |
| 5 Nov, 16:21 UTC | 31% |
| 5 Nov, 15:41 UTC | 31% |
| 5 Nov, 12:37 UTC | 32% |
| 5 Nov, 12:29 UTC | 31% |
| 5 Nov, 11:11 UTC | 30% |
| 5 Nov, 10:02 UTC | 30% |
| 5 Nov, 09:33 UTC | 30% |
| 5 Nov, 07:02 UTC | 28% |
| 5 Nov, 06:33 UTC | 28% |
| 5 Nov, 05:30 UTC | 28% |
| 5 Nov, 03:08 UTC | 29% |
| 5 Nov, 02:54 UTC | 28% |
| 5 Nov, 01:49 UTC | 31% |
| 5 Nov, 01:28 UTC | 31% |
| 5 Nov, 00:44 UTC | 32% |
| 4 Nov, 23:40 UTC | 30% |
| 4 Nov, 21:42 UTC | 31% |
| 4 Nov, 20:30 UTC | 30% |
| 4 Nov, 20:23 UTC | 31% |
| 4 Nov, 18:27 UTC | 33% |
| 4 Nov, 17:20 UTC | 35% |
| 4 Nov, 16:49 UTC | 33% |
| 4 Nov, 15:58 UTC | 30% |
| 4 Nov, 15:28 UTC | 28% |
| 4 Nov, 14:59 UTC | 28% |
| 4 Nov, 14:23 UTC | 28% |
| 4 Nov, 13:02 UTC | 28% |
| 4 Nov, 12:54 UTC | 28% |
| 4 Nov, 12:24 UTC | 28% |
| 4 Nov, 11:54 UTC | 28% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The Yes outcome applies if no US air or surface-to-surface missile strike hits Iranian land territory before December 31, 2026. The No outcome triggers if such a qualifying strike occurs within that timeframe. Readers often mistake intercepted missiles or debris landing in Iran for a qualifying action, but these do not count toward resolution.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
Trade this market on Polymarket →