US Offers $20 Million Reward for Information on Iran's Nuclear Programme
The US military and State Department offer up to $20 million for details on Iranian nuclear facilities, equipment, and personnel.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
First reported by Times of India, 6 min ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first
The odds
All 3 sources published before price tracking began
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 11% |
| 7 Nov, 02:09 UTC | 11% |
The story so far
3 publishers have covered this in 3 articles since 7 Nov 2026. Times of India published first, on 7 November at 01:57 UTC; Fox News Politics followed 6 min later. The most recent article, from South China Morning Post, appeared on 7 November at 02:04 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Times of India, Fox News Politics, South China Morning Post.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? — the market puts it at 11%, with $315 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if a formal agreement between the US and Iran sets a 5% or lower limit on uranium enrichment for at least one year by December 31, 2026. The deal must explicitly define this cap as a permanent or long-term obligation rather than a temporary measure. Readers often mistake vague language about
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? — the market puts it at 10%, with $24k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027.
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? — the market puts it at 7%, with $545 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. Iran must publicly pledge to stop all uranium enrichment by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET for a Yes outcome. This pledge can be unilateral or part of any agreement, and it counts even if the deal is not finalized or only limits enrichment levels. Readers often mistake partial caps on enrichment for a full end to enrichment, which does not qualify.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Polymarket Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? 11% −1
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Polymarket US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? 10%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Polymarket Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? 7%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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