Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Implied probability 11%−1
24-hour volume$315
Total volume$285k
Liquidity$61k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 11% |
| 7 Nov, 02:09 UTC | 11% |
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if a formal agreement between the US and Iran sets a 5% or lower limit on uranium enrichment for at least one year by December 31, 2026. The deal must explicitly define this cap as a permanent or long-term obligation rather than a temporary measure. Readers often mistake vague language about
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 11%
- No 89%
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