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Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Implied probability 7%
24-hour volume$545
Total volume$2.1M
Liquidity$66k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
How the odds moved · Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
0%50%100%7%31 Oct, 08:07 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now7%
6 Nov, 20:46 UTC7%
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31 Oct, 08:07 UTC7%

Your call. How does this end?

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What counts

Iran must publicly pledge to stop all uranium enrichment by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET for a Yes outcome. This pledge can be unilateral or part of any agreement, and it counts even if the deal is not finalized or only limits enrichment levels. Readers often mistake partial caps on enrichment for a full end to enrichment, which does not qualify.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 7%
  • No 93%

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