Before Election Day
Implied probability 11%
24-hour volume$125
Total volume$68k
Liquidity$68k
Resolves7 Nov 2028
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 11% |
| 6 Nov, 02:22 UTC | 11% |
| 5 Nov, 23:01 UTC | 12% |
| 5 Nov, 07:24 UTC | 15% |
| 4 Nov, 17:20 UTC | 18% |
| 4 Nov, 15:13 UTC | 22% |
| 4 Nov, 11:32 UTC | 18% |
| 4 Nov, 06:43 UTC | 15% |
| 4 Nov, 02:34 UTC | 20% |
| 3 Nov, 07:48 UTC | 14% |
| 3 Nov, 03:33 UTC | 20% |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | 18% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Donald Trump announces his intention to run for U.S. President in 2028 before November 7, 2028. The outcome is No if he does not make such an announcement by that date. Readers often mistake the sale of a Thomas Jefferson letter for the relevant event, but only Trump's specific announcement counts toward resolution.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 11%
- No 89%