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Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House AND hold 49 or more seats in the Senate?

Implied probability 99%
24-hour volume$236k
Total volume$13.2M
Liquidity$13.2M
Resolves1 Feb 2027
How the odds moved · Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House AND hold 49 or more seats in the Senate?
0%50%100%99%31 Oct, 07:53 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now99%
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31 Oct, 07:53 UTC85%

Does the market have this right?

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What counts

Democrats must win at least 218 House seats and 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections for the outcome to be Yes. The market resolves based on the final seat count following those specific elections. Readers often mistake the deadline, thinking it applies to the 2024 election or other political events.

Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 99%
  • No 1%

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