Supreme Court Rejects DOJ Bid to Set Aside California Ballots Hot: Odds moved 18 points in 24 hours

How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Before 2030 at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

1. 19 Oct, 17:15FortuneFeds arrest more than two dozen green card holders in California for allegedly voting, weeks before the midterms—
2. 19 Oct, 18:52The GuardianDoJ charges 28 green card holders in California over alleged voter fraud—
3. 19 Oct, 18:53Mother JonesTrump’s Voter Raids Have Begun—
4. 19 Oct, 19:53South China Morning PostUS arrests over 2 dozen in California sweep targeting alleged non-citizen voters—
5. 19 Oct, 22:10NPR PoliticsDOJ charges 28 in California with voting crimes as election tensions escalate—
6. 20 Oct, 00:46The HillJustice Department targets and charges 28 alleged noncitizen California voters—
7. 20 Oct, 04:11Times of IndiaTwo Indians among 28 green card holders charged with election fraud in California—
8. 20 Oct, 10:23The Guardian USFederal efforts over alleged noncitizen voting escalate with California arrests | First Thing—
9. 20 Oct, 11:04NPR WorldDOJ charges 28 with voting crimes. And, TikTok ignored staff's child safety concerns—
10. 20 Oct, 19:46The GuardianDoJ’s suspected non-citizens list includes ‘high percentage’ of those born in US, LA officials say—
11. Show 143 later sources

    1. 21 Oct, 02:15NPR PoliticsSome on DOJ's 20,000 "likely" noncitizen list in Calif. appear to be U.S.-born—
    2. 21 Oct, 02:51Bloomberg.comTrump Sued by Democrats Over Effort to Purge State Voter Rolls—
    3. 21 Oct, 11:46NPR PoliticsDOJ's noncitizen voter list is unreliable, officials say. And, U.S. pollution rises—
    4. 21 Oct, 16:44Fox News PoliticsNewsom spars with Trump-appointed prosecutor over 20,000 suspected noncitizens on voter rolls—
    5. 21 Oct, 21:54AxiosDemocrats accuse Trump of using prosecution threats to pressure election officials—
    6. 22 Oct, 00:18NPR PoliticsThe Justice Department begins notifying counties where it wants to monitor elections—
    7. 22 Oct, 00:56The HillDemocrats sue Trump administration over 'threats and intimidation' ahead of election—
    8. 22 Oct, 03:00CBS News PoliticsJudge curbs DHS efforts to conduct sweeps for possible noncitizen voters—
    9. 22 Oct, 13:25The Hill NewsJudge blocks most DHS field operations focused on voter fraud—
    10. 22 Oct, 16:53Fox News PoliticsBiden-appointed judge blocks voter-fraud probes in battleground states just days before midterms—
    11. 22 Oct, 17:20Bloomberg.comBlanche Says More States Could Face DOJ Suits Over Elections—
    12. 22 Oct, 17:38The Guardian USUS judge orders Trump administration to halt noncitizen voting investigation—
    13. 22 Oct, 17:42Fox News PoliticsDOJ has verified 20,000 noncitizens on California voter rolls, federal prosecutor says—
    14. 22 Oct, 19:16NPR PoliticsFederal judge restricts DHS field operations looking for noncitizen voters—
    15. 22 Oct, 19:23QuartzU.S. Justice Dept. is weighing more state election lawsuits before midterms—
    16. 22 Oct, 19:24AxiosJudge curbs Trump administration's noncitizen voting probes—
    17. 22 Oct, 21:52Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraUS judge blocks federal operations seeking to identify non-citizen voters—
    18. 23 Oct, 03:12Just In NewsDOJ asks appeals court to intervene for California mail-in ballot lawsuit—
    19. 23 Oct, 16:52The HillFeds knocking on doors to question voters' immigration status: CBS—
    20. 24 Oct, 02:00The Guardian USCalifornia officials ordered by DoJ to set aside ‘likely’ noncitizen ballots—
    21. 24 Oct, 02:54CBS News PoliticsDOJ demands that some California counties set aside alleged noncitizen ballots—
    22. 24 Oct, 09:21Fox News PoliticsCalifornia must respond to DOJ's emergency request over ballots mailed to alleged noncitizens, court rules—
    23. 24 Oct, 13:10The HillDOJ demands California counties identify noncitizen voters: Reports—
    24. 24 Oct, 20:38The Hill NewsSunday shows preview: Trump’s DOJ keeps close eye on election results; Last-minute campaigning heats up—
    25. 25 Oct, 00:16The Guardian USCalifornia leaders rebuke Trump administration’s push over alleged noncitizen voting—
    26. 25 Oct, 22:02The HillAppeals court resists DOJ's bid to immediately segregate 20k California ballots—
    27. 25 Oct, 22:18The HillTillis accuses California of being 'guilty' of ballot harvesting: 'They have a system there that is ripe for abuse'—
    28. 25 Oct, 22:34politico.comJustice Department faces skeptical appeals court panel in California ballot fight—
    29. 25 Oct, 23:22Bloomberg.comAppeals Court Skeptical of DOJ Lawsuit Over California Ballots—
    30. 26 Oct, 01:26Fox News PoliticsNinth Circuit questions Trump DOJ's emergency request to set aside 20,000 California mail ballots—
    31. 26 Oct, 04:32Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraUS appeals court sceptical of Trump’s lawsuit over California voter rolls—
    32. 26 Oct, 10:30National ReviewNoncitizen Voting Is a Real Problem — and This Loophole Explains Why—
    33. 26 Oct, 11:27Times of India25 Arizona voters wrongly flagged as noncitizens regain access before midterms—
    34. 26 Oct, 12:51Times of IndiaJudge orders halt to Trump voter probes in 9 states, stays ruling for appeal—
    35. 26 Oct, 15:44Fox News PoliticsTrump-appointed judge slams door on DOJ as court losses pile up days ahead of midterms—
    36. 26 Oct, 20:17FortuneTwo of three appeals judges appear skeptical of Justice Department push to hold California ballots from 20,000 flagged voters—
    37. 26 Oct, 22:44The Guardian USCourt blocks bid by Trump DoJ to stop California from counting mail-in ballots—
    38. 26 Oct, 23:09CBS News PoliticsCourt dismisses DOJ's request to force California to set aside ballots—
    39. 26 Oct, 23:25The Hill NewsAppeals court rules against DOJ in California ballot fight—
    40. 27 Oct, 01:01Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraUS court rules against Trump administration in California voting case—
    41. 27 Oct, 01:26The Guardian USTrump administration asks Washington to set aside hundreds of ballots from suspected noncitizen voters—
    42. 27 Oct, 03:05Times of IndiaTrump's bid to block California mail ballots over 'non-citizens' hits court roadblock—
    43. 27 Oct, 15:24The Hill NewsTrump administration: Hundreds of Washington state voters may be noncitizens—
    44. 27 Oct, 15:35CBS News PoliticsDOJ asks Washington to set aside ballots from 400 alleged noncitizens—
    45. 27 Oct, 15:46Times of IndiaUS charges 48 noncitizens over election crimes; 2 Indians among accused—
    46. 28 Oct, 00:47The Guardian USFederal judge disqualifies Trump-appointed prosecutor for overstay in role—
    47. 28 Oct, 00:56Fox News PoliticsFederal officials identify 400 noncitizens registered to vote in Washington state: 'Tip of the iceberg'—
    48. 28 Oct, 11:30The Hill NewsBallots in the hallway: How California can restore lagging faith in our elections—
    49. 28 Oct, 12:00The HillThe midterm legal fight is already here—
    50. 28 Oct, 15:35The HillElection lawsuits are underway: What voters need to know—
    51. 28 Oct, 21:04The GuardianCalifornia election official says federal agents threatened him over ‘voter fraud’—
    52. 28 Oct, 23:10Mother JonesLibs of TikTok Is Reviving an Old Conspiracy Theory About California’s Ballots—
    53. 29 Oct, 00:43CBS News PoliticsJudge rejects DOJ's push to force California to set aside ballots—
    54. 29 Oct, 00:48The Guardian USJudge rebuffs Trump DoJ’s bid to order California to set aside 20,000 ballots—
    55. 29 Oct, 00:52NPR PoliticsJudge denies the Justice Department's bid to stop processing California ballots—
    56. 29 Oct, 00:59The HillDOJ's California ballot fight rejected by another judge—
    57. 29 Oct, 01:17Latest articlesTrump expands hunt for noncitizen voters with subpoena campaign before midterms—
    58. 29 Oct, 02:59Times of India‘Wreak havoc’: US judge blocks Trump bid to set aside 20,000 California ballots—
    59. 29 Oct, 05:06Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraJudge rejects Trump effort to block California ‘noncitizen’ ballots—
    60. 29 Oct, 11:08Roll CallJudge denies Trump administration bid to set aside California votes—
    61. 29 Oct, 11:46Fox News PoliticsJudge rejects DOJ request to block California from immediately counting ballots linked to alleged noncitizens—
    62. 29 Oct, 15:03Mother JonesTrump’s Attempts to Interfere in the Midterms Have Been “Complete Failures”—
    63. 29 Oct, 16:18Fox News PoliticsTrump DOJ's fight over 20K suspected noncitizen voters takes sharp turn as California ballots pour in—
    64. 29 Oct, 17:15The HillNewsom warns Trump as California deploys election lawyers to battleground districts—
    65. 29 Oct, 17:30CBS News PoliticsU.S. citizens included on DOJ list of 400 alleged noncitizens, Washington says—
    66. 29 Oct, 18:41Fox News PoliticsElection expert sounds alarm on how noncitizens are landing on voter rolls—
    67. 29 Oct, 19:26politico.com‘Why do you need this?’: Appeals court skeptical of pre-election ICE enforcement surge—
    68. 29 Oct, 19:31The HillWashington state secretary of state fires back at DOJ over noncitizen voter claim: 'Profoundly disappointing'—
    69. 29 Oct, 19:46Mother JonesCourt Denies White House Bid to Toss California Ballots—
    70. 29 Oct, 21:14Roll CallJudge orders Justice Department to disclose noncitizen voter letters—
    71. 29 Oct, 22:45CBS News PoliticsCalifornia officials face grand jury subpoenas as DOJ expands voting probe—
    72. 29 Oct, 22:53politico.comJustice Department subpoenas California election workers in probe of noncitizen voting—
    73. 30 Oct, 01:35NPR PoliticsJustice Department issues subpoenas to California election workers—
    74. 30 Oct, 14:23The HillDOJ subpoenas California officials in voter rolls investigation escalation—
    75. 30 Oct, 17:22Fox News PoliticsCalifornia election workers hit with criminal subpoenas as Trump DOJ turns up heat in voting showdown—
    76. 30 Oct, 18:49Bloomberg.comAppeals Court Denies DOJ Bid to Block 20,000 California Ballots—
    77. 30 Oct, 19:29AxiosTrump DOJ loses last-minute California ballot bid—
    78. 30 Oct, 19:40CBS News PoliticsAppeals court rejects DOJ bid to set aside disputed California ballots—
    79. 30 Oct, 19:50The Hill NewsAppeals court rules against Trump — again — on California ballots—
    80. 30 Oct, 19:56politico.comDOJ rebuffed again in California ballot fight—
    81. 30 Oct, 20:39Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraUS appeals court again rejects Trump bid to set aside California ballots—
    82. 31 Oct, 00:49AxiosJust four days before Election Day, DOJ probes Arizona voter registrations—
    83. 31 Oct, 01:05politico.comJudge orders DOJ to stop threatening to prosecute election officials—
    84. 31 Oct, 01:30The Guardian USFederal judge bars DoJ from threatening election workers to stop processing ballots—
    85. 31 Oct, 02:10AxiosJudge blocks DOJ from threatening election workers before midterms—
    86. 31 Oct, 02:50CBS News PoliticsJudge orders DOJ to stop trying to "intimidate" California election officials—
    87. 31 Oct, 02:55Bloomberg.comJudge Orders DOJ to Not Threaten California Election Officials—
    88. 31 Oct, 03:01Just In NewsJudge blocks DOJ from threatening election officials over noncitizen voting claims—
    89. 31 Oct, 05:57Fox News PoliticsFederal judge blocks Trump DOJ threats against election workers ahead of 2026 midterms—
    90. 31 Oct, 21:38Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraLegal filing questions Trump’s claims of non-citizen voting in California—
    91. 1 Nov, 00:27BBC NewsJudge orders Trump administration to stop threatening US election officials—
    92. 1 Nov, 01:12Bloomberg.comNewsom Warns Judges Over Federal Election Warrants in California—
    93. 1 Nov, 15:15The HillData analysts flag mismatches in Trump administration California voter eligibility list—
    94. 1 Nov, 18:04Mother JonesTrump’s List of Alleged Noncitizen Voters in California May Be Filled With Errors—
    95. 2 Nov, 15:50Fox News PoliticsDOJ appeals to Supreme Court to reverse block on segregating 20K California ballots—
    96. 2 Nov, 15:50Fox News PoliticsSupreme Court denies Trump admin request to reverse block on segregating 20K California ballots—
    97. 2 Nov, 16:23Bloomberg.comTrump’s DOJ Turns to Supreme Court in California Ballot Clash—
    98. 2 Nov, 16:34NPR PoliticsDOJ asks for Supreme Court to intervene on California ballot demands—
    99. 2 Nov, 16:45The Hill NewsTrump administration brings California ballot fight to Supreme Court—
    100. 2 Nov, 16:58CBS News PoliticsTrump asks Supreme Court to intervene in California ballot case—
    101. 2 Nov, 17:15AxiosTrump administration turns to SCOTUS in California ballot case—
    102. 2 Nov, 17:19Times of IndiaMidterms: Trump admin seeks SC order to hold 20,000 California ballots over citizenship—
    103. 2 Nov, 17:57News - South China Morning PostTrump administration asks Supreme Court to set aside 20,000 disputed California ballots—
    104. 2 Nov, 18:12News FeedTrump administration asks Supreme Court to block some California ballots—
    105. 2 Nov, 18:59Roll CallSupreme Court asked to intervene in California ballots case—
    106. 2 Nov, 19:06Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraTrump asks Supreme Court to block 20,000 California ballots before midterms—
    107. 2 Nov, 19:13Deutsche WelleTrump asks Supreme Court to block 20,000 California midterm ballots—
    108. 2 Nov, 21:50The HillDOJ calls for sanctions over California voter rolls analysis—
    109. 2 Nov, 22:45AxiosAnother judge blocks DOJ ballot demands in California—
    110. 2 Nov, 22:55The HillSupreme Court rejects Trump administration's bid to set aside 20K California ballots—
    111. 2 Nov, 22:59politico.comSupreme Court rejects Trump admin bid to force California to set aside ballots—
    112. 2 Nov, 23:03CBS News PoliticsSupreme Court rejects Trump's request in California mail ballots dispute—
    113. 2 Nov, 23:09Deutsche WelleSupreme Court rejects Trump bid to block 20,000 California ballots—
    114. 2 Nov, 23:09AxiosSCOTUS rejects Trump's bid over disputed California ballots—
    115. 2 Nov, 23:09The Guardian USSupreme court rules against Trump over bid to force California to set aside ballots—
    116. 2 Nov, 23:14Bloomberg.comDOJ Rejected by Supreme Court on CA Ballots, Apple Earnings—
    117. 2 Nov, 23:15DeadlineTrump Loses At SCOTUS As High Court Rejects California Noncitizens Voting Request On Midterms Eve—
    118. 2 Nov, 23:22The GuardianTrump’s DoJ charges six more people in ‘voter fraud’ crackdown in California—
    119. 3 Nov, 00:01Bloomberg.comSupreme Court Rejects CA Ballot Bid, Apple Mixed Results, More—
    120. 3 Nov, 00:51Bloomberg.comDOJ Loses CA Ballot Fight, Apple Posts Mixed Results, More—
    121. 3 Nov, 01:04Bloomberg.comDemocrats Lose Bid to Halt DOJ Effort Over ‘Non-Citizen’ Ballots—
    122. 3 Nov, 01:57Times of IndiaUS Supreme Court rejects Trump's push to isolate 20,000 California ballots over citizenship claims—
    123. 3 Nov, 02:31Bloomberg.comSupreme Court Rejects DOJ California Ballot Bid, Apple Earnings—
    124. 3 Nov, 03:23Bloomberg.comDOJ Loses California Ballot Bid, Apple Results Mixed, More—
    125. 3 Nov, 03:32BBC NewsSupreme Court rejects Trump's request to stop California counting disputed votes—
    126. 3 Nov, 03:55Bloomberg.comDOJ Rejected by Supreme Court on CA Ballots, Apple Earnings—
    127. 3 Nov, 04:33Bloomberg.comSupreme Court Rejects DOJ CA Ballot Push, Apple Mixed Results—
    128. 3 Nov, 05:19Bloomberg.comJudge Rejects Bid to Limit Whom DOJ Can Send as Poll Monitors—
    129. 3 Nov, 06:02The DispatchWhat to Watch as the Trump Administration Presses States on Elections—
    130. 3 Nov, 10:57Fox News PoliticsFederal judge orders DOJ to ensure poll monitors are not law enforcement officials—
    131. 3 Nov, 11:50The DispatchTrump’s Approval Ratings Wane—
    132. 3 Nov, 13:05Fox News Politics9th Circuit block on California noncitizen voter probe lifted, then restored in legal boomerang—
    133. 3 Nov, 13:27France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlinesUS Supreme court rejects Trump request to set aside 20,000 California ballots—
    134. 3 Nov, 13:29AxiosDOJ sending 1,000 election monitors to all 50 states—
    135. 3 Nov, 13:51The HillFull appeals court to rehear case on Trump administration election worker threats—
    136. 3 Nov, 21:37The HillJustice Department: Election Day monitors deployed to every state for first time—
    137. 3 Nov, 22:39Ars TechnicaCalifornia fights "preposterous" Trump admin demand to scrap state broadband laws—
    138. 4 Nov, 02:25Latest articlesTrump’s Supreme Court winning streak in election cases screeches to a halt—
    139. 4 Nov, 10:08Fox News PoliticsBonta says he'll counter DOJ election monitors with observers of his own—
    140. 4 Nov, 18:55CBS News PoliticsDOJ subpoenas California counties over alleged noncitizen voting—
    141. 5 Nov, 19:34Fox News PoliticsDemocrats ‘divorced from voters’ as 5 states back citizen-only voting, bolstering GOP push25%
    142. 7 Nov, 01:39CBS News PoliticsDOJ dropping suit asking California to set aside alleged noncitizen ballots25%
    143. 7 Nov, 02:32The HillDOJ dismisses lawsuit over California's 20,000 disputed ballots25%
12. NowCurrent odds21%