Above 10.9M
Implied probability 99%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$17k
Liquidity$17k
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 5 Nov, 17:20 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 16:27 UTC | 93% |
| 4 Nov, 11:32 UTC | 83% |
| 3 Nov, 19:14 UTC | 86% |
| 3 Nov, 16:55 UTC | 95% |
| 3 Nov, 12:07 UTC | 96% |
| 2 Nov, 23:08 UTC | 95% |
| 1 Nov, 19:45 UTC | 87% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the total number of votes cast in the California Governor General Election exceeds 10,900,000. It resolves to No if that total is 10,900,000 or fewer. Readers often mistake the linked story about DHS voter fraud probes for the relevant event, but only the official vote count from the California election matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%