Republican Party
The market favoured No at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$4k
Total volume$13k
Liquidity$13k
Resolved26 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 6 Nov, 21:45 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 02:17 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 13:02 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 05:39 UTC | 1% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Republican Party controls the Texas House of Representatives after the 2026 elections. It resolves to No if they do not win that control. Readers often mistake this for a prediction about individual candidates rather than the party's overall seat count.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%