At least 40%
Why it moved: +3 points at 05:02 UTC, after Bloomberg.com: Miller New Chief of Staff,DDHQ: CA Rejects Billionaires Tax,More — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 7 Nov, 05:02 UTC | 99% |
| 5 Nov, 11:11 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Nov, 10:48 UTC | 0% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the certified results show that at least 40% of the popular vote supports Proposition 40 in the 2026 California election. The outcome depends entirely on the final, official certification of those votes, not on early polls or projections. Readers often mistake the date of the election itself for the deadline, but the resolution waits for the certified count.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%