Trump faces lame-duck period amid fears of aggressive foreign policy
Analysts predict the embattled president will pivot to international affairs and executive orders to maintain influence after losing congressional control.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
First reported by News Feed, 31 min ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 6 Nov, 17:20 UTC | 1% |
| 6 Nov, 16:20 UTC | 1% |
| 6 Nov, 06:49 UTC | 1% |
| 6 Nov, 06:21 UTC | 1% |
| 6 Nov, 05:38 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Nov, 05:25 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Nov, 04:49 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Nov, 04:27 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Nov, 03:51 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Nov, 03:23 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Nov, 02:52 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Nov, 02:29 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Nov, 01:52 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Nov, 01:02 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Nov, 00:41 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 23:29 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 22:54 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 22:11 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 21:42 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 20:42 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 19:50 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 17:13 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 16:29 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Nov, 05:02 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Nov, 03:51 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 02:47 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 02:24 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 00:16 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 23:54 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 22:42 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 21:10 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 20:06 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 17:42 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 17:20 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 16:13 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 14:59 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 09:07 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 08:45 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 08:24 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 07:56 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 07:20 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 06:43 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 06:28 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 05:53 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 05:09 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 04:40 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 03:55 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 01:57 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 01:27 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 00:29 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 23:53 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 23:24 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 22:49 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 22:19 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 21:57 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 20:56 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 20:27 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 19:57 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 19:29 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 18:59 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 18:29 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 15:36 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 04:15 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Nov, 18:04 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Nov, 11:19 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Nov, 08:39 UTC | 1% |
| 31 Oct, 23:17 UTC | 1% |
| 31 Oct, 17:21 UTC | 1% |
| 31 Oct, 11:06 UTC | 1% |
| 31 Oct, 07:53 UTC | 1% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027? respond.
The story so far
5 publishers have covered this in 6 articles since 5 Nov 2026. News Feed published first, on 5 November at 09:30 UTC; The Economist followed 31 min later. The most recent article, from France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines, appeared on 6 November at 15:03 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: News Feed (major outlet), The Economist (major outlet), The Guardian US (major outlet), South China Morning Post, France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027? — the market puts it at 1%, with $816 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The Yes outcome triggers if Donald Trump permanently leaves his current office before January 1, 2027. Temporary suspensions, caretaker roles, or mere resignation announcements do not count toward this result. Readers often mistake the deadline as the end of 2027, but the cutoff is actually December 31, 2026.
- Before his term ends — the market puts it at 24%, with $19k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 20 Jan 2029. The outcome is Yes if the U.S. President is impeached by the House of Representatives and convicted by the Senate before January 20, 2029. The outcome is No if this does not happen within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the linked news story about firing aides for the actual impeachment process.
- During his presidential term — the market puts it at 26%, closing 31 Dec 2031. The market resolves to Yes if income inequality in the United States is higher in 2024 than it is in 2028. It resolves to No if inequality is lower or equal in 2024 compared to 2028. Readers often mistake the linked news story about fuel economy standards as the deciding factor, but the resolution depends solely on economic inequality data.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- News FeedA weakened Trump still leaves Britain on edge3%
- The EconomistWhat will a lame-duck Donald Trump get up to overseas?3%
- South China Morning PostFacing 2 years as a lame duck, what can Trump do to stay in control?3%
- The Guardian USThe Guardian view on the midterms and foreign policy: American voters spoke, and now the world waits anxiously | Editorial2%
- The Guardian USAfter the midterms, the global right is reeling. But the danger of Trumpism will never be gone | Jonathan Freedland1%▼1 points since the previous source
- France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlinesChina keeps a close eye on US midterm shake-up1%
- Current odds1%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- After the midterms, the global right is reeling. But the danger of Trumpism will never be gone | Jonathan Freedland The Guardian US ·
- The Guardian view on the midterms and foreign policy: American voters spoke, and now the world waits anxiously | Editorial The Guardian US ·
- What will a lame-duck Donald Trump get up to overseas? The Economist ·
- A weakened Trump still leaves Britain on edge News Feed ·
- China keeps a close eye on US midterm shake-up France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines
- Facing 2 years as a lame duck, what can Trump do to stay in control? South China Morning Post
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Polymarket Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027? 1%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Before his term ends 24% +2
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi During his presidential term 26%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
Have your say
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls