Europe Views Trump as Powerful Despite Democratic Victory
European leaders and officials warn that Donald Trump remains a significant global threat, rejecting the notion that his electoral defeat signals a return to traditional US foreign policy.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 6 Nov, 17:20 UTC | 1% |
| 6 Nov, 16:20 UTC | 1% |
| 6 Nov, 06:49 UTC | 1% |
| 6 Nov, 06:21 UTC | 1% |
| 6 Nov, 05:38 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Nov, 05:25 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Nov, 04:49 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Nov, 04:27 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Nov, 03:51 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Nov, 03:23 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Nov, 02:52 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Nov, 02:29 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Nov, 01:52 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Nov, 01:02 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Nov, 00:41 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 23:29 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 22:54 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 22:11 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 21:42 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 20:42 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 19:50 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 17:13 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 16:29 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Nov, 05:02 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Nov, 03:51 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 02:47 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 02:24 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 00:16 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 23:54 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 22:42 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 21:10 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 20:06 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 17:42 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 17:20 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 16:13 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 14:59 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 09:07 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 08:45 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 08:24 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 07:56 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 07:20 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 06:43 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 06:28 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 05:53 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 05:09 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 04:40 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 03:55 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 01:57 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 01:27 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 00:29 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 23:53 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 23:24 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 22:49 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 22:19 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 21:57 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 20:56 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 20:27 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 19:57 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 19:29 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 18:59 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 18:29 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 15:36 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 04:15 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Nov, 18:04 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Nov, 11:19 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Nov, 08:39 UTC | 1% |
| 31 Oct, 23:17 UTC | 1% |
| 31 Oct, 17:21 UTC | 1% |
| 31 Oct, 11:06 UTC | 1% |
| 31 Oct, 07:53 UTC | 1% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027? respond.
The story so far
4 publishers have covered this in 4 articles since 3 Nov 2026. The Guardian US published first, on 3 November at 18:07 UTC; News Feed followed 41h 40m later. The most recent article, from News from Europe - Latest world headlines and daily news - France 24, appeared on 6 November at 16:44 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: The Guardian US (major outlet), News Feed (major outlet), The New York Times (major outlet), News from Europe - Latest world headlines and daily news - France 24.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027? — the market puts it at 1%, with $816 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The Yes outcome triggers if Donald Trump permanently leaves his current office before January 1, 2027. Temporary suspensions, caretaker roles, or mere resignation announcements do not count toward this result. Readers often mistake the deadline as the end of 2027, but the cutoff is actually December 31, 2026.
- During Trump's term — the market puts it at 13%, with $2k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 20 Jan 2029. The market resolves to Yes if the United States government takes control of any part of the Panama Canal before January 20, 2029. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked story about tariffs for the relevant event, but only actual control of the canal counts.
- Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? — the market puts it at 0%, closing 8 Nov 2028. The Yes outcome occurs if Eric Trump wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The No outcome applies if he does not win. Readers often mistake the deadline for the election day itself, but the market resolves only when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate, or by the inauguration date of January 20, 2029, if no consensus is reached.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- The Guardian USEven if US democracy can be salvaged from Trump, Europe is moving on | Rafael Behr1%
- News FeedEurope can’t assume the old America is coming back3%▲1 points since the previous source
- The New York TimesEurope Still Sees Trump As Powerful, Especially in Foreign Policy1%▼1 points since the previous source
- News from Europe - Latest world headlines and daily news - France 24'Trump is a very dangerous person for the world': EU's former top diplomat Josep Borrell1%
- Current odds1%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Europe Still Sees Trump As Powerful, Especially in Foreign Policy The New York Times ·
- Europe can’t assume the old America is coming back News Feed ·
- Even if US democracy can be salvaged from Trump, Europe is moving on | Rafael Behr The Guardian US ·
- 'Trump is a very dangerous person for the world': EU's former top diplomat Josep Borrell News from Europe - Latest world headlines and daily news - France 24
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Polymarket Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027? 1%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi During Trump's term 13% −2
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Polymarket Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? 0%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Donald Trump
- Democrats
- Josep Borrell
- European Union