During Trump's term
Implied probability 13%−2
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$623k
Liquidity$623k
Resolves20 Jan 2029
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 13% |
| 7 Nov, 00:23 UTC | 13% |
| 6 Nov, 22:14 UTC | 15% |
| 6 Nov, 19:25 UTC | 14% |
| 6 Nov, 18:34 UTC | 16% |
| 6 Nov, 18:27 UTC | 14% |
| 5 Nov, 18:13 UTC | 15% |
| 5 Nov, 15:49 UTC | 16% |
| 5 Nov, 11:56 UTC | 15% |
| 5 Nov, 07:24 UTC | 16% |
| 5 Nov, 04:12 UTC | 20% |
| 5 Nov, 01:56 UTC | 21% |
| 4 Nov, 14:23 UTC | 20% |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | 19% |
| 4 Nov, 02:49 UTC | 22% |
| 4 Nov, 01:57 UTC | 19% |
| 3 Nov, 23:17 UTC | 21% |
| 3 Nov, 21:03 UTC | 19% |
| 3 Nov, 13:25 UTC | 21% |
| 2 Nov, 18:56 UTC | 19% |
| 1 Nov, 17:27 UTC | 20% |
| 31 Oct, 16:43 UTC | 21% |
| 31 Oct, 15:30 UTC | 20% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the United States government takes control of any part of the Panama Canal before January 20, 2029. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked story about tariffs for the relevant event, but only actual control of the canal counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 13%
- No 87%