US, China Trade Chiefs Hold Call Ahead of Trump-Xi Summit in Shenzhen
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer spoke with Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng to finalize preparations for the upcoming meeting.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story · 13 more published before price tracking began
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 97% |
| 7 Nov, 04:26 UTC | 97% |
| 7 Nov, 03:59 UTC | 98% |
| 7 Nov, 02:09 UTC | 95% |
| 6 Nov, 21:38 UTC | 97% |
| 6 Nov, 10:49 UTC | 96% |
| 6 Nov, 02:52 UTC | 96% |
| 5 Nov, 22:54 UTC | 96% |
| 5 Nov, 15:57 UTC | 96% |
| 5 Nov, 07:09 UTC | 97% |
| 5 Nov, 05:50 UTC | 97% |
| 5 Nov, 05:17 UTC | 97% |
| 5 Nov, 04:34 UTC | 97% |
| 5 Nov, 04:26 UTC | 97% |
| 5 Nov, 03:51 UTC | 97% |
| 5 Nov, 03:01 UTC | 97% |
| 5 Nov, 02:54 UTC | 97% |
| 5 Nov, 02:03 UTC | 95% |
| 5 Nov, 01:49 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 95% |
| 4 Nov, 15:43 UTC | 95% |
| 4 Nov, 15:06 UTC | 95% |
| 4 Nov, 14:59 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Nov, 13:53 UTC | 95% |
| 4 Nov, 13:24 UTC | 95% |
| 4 Nov, 12:02 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Nov, 11:40 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Nov, 11:12 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Nov, 10:21 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Nov, 09:57 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Nov, 09:21 UTC | 95% |
| 4 Nov, 08:53 UTC | 95% |
| 4 Nov, 08:24 UTC | 95% |
| 4 Nov, 07:56 UTC | 94% |
| 4 Nov, 07:20 UTC | 94% |
| 4 Nov, 05:09 UTC | 94% |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | 94% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 94% |
| 4 Nov, 03:55 UTC | 94% |
| 4 Nov, 03:26 UTC | 95% |
| 3 Nov, 23:17 UTC | 94% |
| 3 Nov, 21:49 UTC | 94% |
| 3 Nov, 17:03 UTC | 94% |
| 3 Nov, 16:40 UTC | 94% |
| 3 Nov, 16:04 UTC | 94% |
| 3 Nov, 15:29 UTC | 94% |
| 3 Nov, 13:04 UTC | 94% |
| 3 Nov, 12:28 UTC | 94% |
| 3 Nov, 11:06 UTC | 94% |
| 3 Nov, 10:45 UTC | 94% |
| 3 Nov, 10:09 UTC | 94% |
| 3 Nov, 09:54 UTC | 94% |
| 3 Nov, 09:27 UTC | 94% |
| 3 Nov, 08:17 UTC | 94% |
| 3 Nov, 07:55 UTC | 94% |
| 3 Nov, 07:26 UTC | 94% |
| 3 Nov, 06:23 UTC | 94% |
| 3 Nov, 05:54 UTC | 94% |
| 3 Nov, 05:25 UTC | 94% |
| 3 Nov, 04:51 UTC | 94% |
| 3 Nov, 04:08 UTC | 94% |
| 3 Nov, 03:40 UTC | 94% |
| 3 Nov, 01:54 UTC | 94% |
| 2 Nov, 22:02 UTC | 94% |
| 2 Nov, 20:37 UTC | 95% |
| 2 Nov, 13:41 UTC | 95% |
| 2 Nov, 13:04 UTC | 95% |
| 2 Nov, 12:05 UTC | 95% |
| 2 Nov, 08:01 UTC | 95% |
| 2 Nov, 06:56 UTC | 95% |
| 2 Nov, 06:21 UTC | 95% |
| 2 Nov, 05:46 UTC | 95% |
| 2 Nov, 05:24 UTC | 95% |
| 2 Nov, 04:47 UTC | 95% |
| 2 Nov, 01:24 UTC | 95% |
| 2 Nov, 00:19 UTC | 95% |
| 1 Nov, 23:22 UTC | 95% |
| 31 Oct, 23:22 UTC | 89% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by November 30, 2026? respond.
The story so far
8 publishers have covered this in 29 articles since 26 Oct 2026. Deutsche Welle published first, on 26 October at 13:09 UTC; South China Morning Post followed 25h 08m later. The most recent article, from South China Morning Post, appeared on 7 November at 04:09 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Bloomberg Markets (major outlet), News Feed (major outlet), The Hill (major outlet), The New York Times (major outlet), Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), Deutsche Welle, South China Morning Post, Latest articles.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by November 30, 2026? — the market puts it at 97%, with $4k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Dec 2026. The market resolves to "Yes" if Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meet in person and interact between now and November 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it resolves to "No." Readers often mistake the deadline as the end of the day on November 30 without accounting for the specific 11:59 PM ET cutoff.
- Before Jan 1, 2027 — the market puts it at 65%, with $510 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump, Xi Jinping, and Vladimir Putin meet in person together at a trilateral gathering after this question is issued and before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about US-China tensions for the required event, but only a direct meeting involving all three leaders counts.
- Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027? — the market puts it at 88%, with $4k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if an authentic photo or video shows Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, and Xi Jinping in the same frame between now and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The media must be captured and released within this timeframe to count. Readers often mistake a news report of a meeting for actual visual proof of all three men appearing together.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by November 30, 2026? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- Deutsche WelleSteinmeier in China: A major state visit in uncertain times—
- South China Morning PostGerman leader’s China visit latest sign of foreign diplomacy pivot beyond Beijing—
- News - South China Morning PostWe don’t want China decoupling – but we must defend our interests, German president warns—
- Deutsche WelleGermany news: Friedrich Merz calls for global free trade alliance during Asia trip—
- South China Morning PostAustralian PM to visit Beijing after China-hosted Apec summit as tensions simmer—
- Deutsche WelleGermany news: Merz in Asia warns against weaponizing trade, calls for 'rules based' order—
- Deutsche WelleGermany news: Merz in Asia warns against weaponizing trade—
- Bloomberg MarketsXi Urges Germany to Maintain ‘Pragmatic’ Policy Toward China—
- South China Morning PostXi Jinping tells German president China and EU must ‘stay anchored to their partnership’—
- Deutsche WelleGermany news: Merz calls for Korean reunification at DMZ—
Show 19 later sources
- Deutsche WelleGermany news: Merz hopes for Korean reunification at DMZ—
- Bloomberg MarketsAustralian PM Set to Visit Beijing After APEC Meeting, SCMP Says—
- South China Morning PostSoft power on display as China’s first lady Peng Liyuan hosts German counterpart—
- Deutsche WelleMerz says next German president 'must be a woman' — report95%
- Deutsche WelleGerman Chancellor Merz wishes Koreans unity, but does Seoul really want it?95%
- Deutsche WelleGermany's chancellor called for Korean unity. Does Seoul want that?95%
- News - South China Morning PostXi Jinping meets foreign leaders: tracker, October 202694%
- News FeedUS, Russia and China discuss trilateral meeting between Trump, Putin and Xi94%
- News - South China Morning PostWhat is the one big thing that could stop Xi, Putin and Trump meeting at Apec?96%▲2 points since the previous source
- News FeedCorrection: reference to President Trump95%▼1 points since the previous source
- The HillXi's not interested in a trilateral with Trump and Putin96%▲2 points since the previous source
- News - South China Morning PostChances are, US-China truce will be extended at Shenzhen Apec summit96%
- The New York TimesA Summit in China With Trump and Putin? That Might be Awkward for Xi.96%
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraWhat a Trump-Xi-Putin summit could mean – and what it wouldn’t96%
- South China Morning PostUS and EU’s China talks channel comes back to life after stalling since Trump’s return96%
- South China Morning PostUS, China trade chiefs hold call ahead of Trump-Xi summit in Shenzhen96%
- South China Morning PostWill the US midterm ‘blue tsunami’ erode China’s faith in Trump and Xi’s relationship?97%
- Latest articlesU.S. urges China to meet rare earths and agriculture commitments ahead of Trump-Xi meetings95%▼2 points since the previous source
- South China Morning PostChina airs ‘serious concern’ over US sanctions ahead of Xi, Trump Apec meeting in Shenzhen98%▲3 points since the previous source
- Current odds97%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- What a Trump-Xi-Putin summit could mean – and what it wouldn’t Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- A Summit in China With Trump and Putin? That Might be Awkward for Xi. The New York Times ·
- Xi's not interested in a trilateral with Trump and Putin The Hill ·
- Correction: reference to President Trump News Feed ·
- US, Russia and China discuss trilateral meeting between Trump, Putin and Xi News Feed ·
- Australian PM Set to Visit Beijing After APEC Meeting, SCMP Says Bloomberg Markets ·
Show 23 more sources
- Xi Urges Germany to Maintain ‘Pragmatic’ Policy Toward China Bloomberg Markets ·
- China airs ‘serious concern’ over US sanctions ahead of Xi, Trump Apec meeting in Shenzhen South China Morning Post
- U.S. urges China to meet rare earths and agriculture commitments ahead of Trump-Xi meetings Latest articles
- Will the US midterm ‘blue tsunami’ erode China’s faith in Trump and Xi’s relationship? South China Morning Post
- US, China trade chiefs hold call ahead of Trump-Xi summit in Shenzhen South China Morning Post
- US and EU’s China talks channel comes back to life after stalling since Trump’s return South China Morning Post
- Chances are, US-China truce will be extended at Shenzhen Apec summit News - South China Morning Post
- What is the one big thing that could stop Xi, Putin and Trump meeting at Apec? News - South China Morning Post
- Xi Jinping meets foreign leaders: tracker, October 2026 News - South China Morning Post
- German Chancellor Merz wishes Koreans unity, but does Seoul really want it? Deutsche Welle
- Germany's chancellor called for Korean unity. Does Seoul want that? Deutsche Welle
- Merz says next German president 'must be a woman' — report Deutsche Welle
- Soft power on display as China’s first lady Peng Liyuan hosts German counterpart South China Morning Post
- Germany news: Merz calls for Korean reunification at DMZ Deutsche Welle
- Germany news: Merz hopes for Korean reunification at DMZ Deutsche Welle
- Xi Jinping tells German president China and EU must ‘stay anchored to their partnership’ South China Morning Post
- Germany news: Merz in Asia warns against weaponizing trade, calls for 'rules based' order Deutsche Welle
- Germany news: Merz in Asia warns against weaponizing trade Deutsche Welle
- Australian PM to visit Beijing after China-hosted Apec summit as tensions simmer South China Morning Post
- Germany news: Friedrich Merz calls for global free trade alliance during Asia trip Deutsche Welle
- We don’t want China decoupling – but we must defend our interests, German president warns News - South China Morning Post
- German leader’s China visit latest sign of foreign diplomacy pivot beyond Beijing South China Morning Post
- Steinmeier in China: A major state visit in uncertain times Deutsche Welle
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Polymarket Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by November 30, 2026? 97% +1
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Before Jan 1, 2027 65% +1
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Polymarket Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027? 88% −1
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
Have your say
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Email me when the odds move
In this story
- Donald Trump
- Xi Jinping
- Vladimir Putin
- Scott Bessent
- Jamieson Greer
- He Lifeng