Before Jan 1, 2027
Implied probability 65%+1
24-hour volume$510
Total volume$26k
Liquidity$26k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 65% |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | 65% |
| 5 Nov, 21:34 UTC | 64% |
| 5 Nov, 13:30 UTC | 66% |
| 5 Nov, 12:44 UTC | 65% |
| 5 Nov, 11:56 UTC | 63% |
| 5 Nov, 07:45 UTC | 66% |
| 4 Nov, 23:25 UTC | 63% |
| 4 Nov, 19:04 UTC | 65% |
| 4 Nov, 18:57 UTC | 61% |
| 4 Nov, 16:49 UTC | 63% |
| 4 Nov, 13:09 UTC | 59% |
| 4 Nov, 07:34 UTC | 58% |
| 4 Nov, 07:13 UTC | 63% |
| 4 Nov, 05:46 UTC | 64% |
| 4 Nov, 05:17 UTC | 63% |
| 4 Nov, 03:48 UTC | 65% |
| 3 Nov, 14:32 UTC | 75% |
| 3 Nov, 14:18 UTC | 53% |
| 3 Nov, 12:50 UTC | 67% |
| 3 Nov, 08:25 UTC | 60% |
| 3 Nov, 02:08 UTC | 66% |
| 3 Nov, 01:32 UTC | 67% |
| 2 Nov, 18:11 UTC | 61% |
| 1 Nov, 20:43 UTC | 65% |
| 1 Nov, 19:52 UTC | 61% |
| 1 Nov, 16:22 UTC | 60% |
| 1 Nov, 03:54 UTC | 59% |
| 31 Oct, 23:46 UTC | 60% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump, Xi Jinping, and Vladimir Putin meet in person together at a trilateral gathering after this question is issued and before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about US-China tensions for the required event, but only a direct meeting involving all three leaders counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 65%
- No 35%