SpaceX to Get Under 10% of Revenue From US Government, Musk Says Hot: Odds moved 32 points in 24 hours

How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Before Jan 1, 2027 at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

1. 19 Oct, 17:40QuartzTesla's proxy asks shareholders to re-elect Musk and has no SpaceX merger vote on the agenda—
2. 20 Oct, 21:30The VergeTesla and SpaceX are discussing a possible merger, Musk says—
3. 20 Oct, 21:43AxiosSpace X and Tesla exploring merger, CEO Elon Musk says—
4. 20 Oct, 21:48All Content from Business InsiderElon Musk says Tesla and SpaceX have set up committees to explore a merger—
5. 20 Oct, 21:52theinformation.comMusk Says SpaceX, Tesla Have Formed Committees to Explore Merger—
6. 20 Oct, 21:57Bloomberg.comSpaceX-Tesla Exploring Merger, Netflix Sales Growth Declines—
7. 20 Oct, 22:04Ars TechnicaMaking SpaceX and Tesla a single company has "a lot of merit," Musk says—
8. 20 Oct, 22:06BBC ScienceElon Musk says Tesla-SpaceX merger would be a 'good idea'—
9. 20 Oct, 22:33MarketWatchTesla’s stock rises as Elon Musk drops new clues about a possible SpaceX merger—
10. 20 Oct, 22:50FortuneElon Musk says Tesla and SpaceX are weighing a $3.5 trillion merger—without him in the room—
11. Show 120 later sources

    1. 20 Oct, 22:57TechCrunchSpaceX and Tesla boards form special committees to review merger—
    2. 20 Oct, 23:14Bloomberg.comMusk: SpaceX and Tesla Begun Exploring Merger, Netflix Falls—
    3. 20 Oct, 23:29Latest articlesMusk calls Tesla-SpaceX merger a ‘good idea’ as SpaceX posts first profit as a public company—
    4. 20 Oct, 23:34Times of IndiaMusk says SpaceX-Tesla merger a 'good idea', special committees formed for talks—
    5. 20 Oct, 23:35South China Morning PostMusk says SpaceX and Tesla are exploring blockbuster merger deal—
    6. 20 Oct, 23:37Bloomberg TechnologyMusk Teases SpaceX-Tesla Merger in Earnings Call—
    7. 20 Oct, 23:45Bloomberg.comSpaceX-Tesla Discussing Potential Merger, Netflix Soft Outlook—
    8. 21 Oct, 00:01theinformation.comSpaceX’s Musk Lauds Its Soaring Cloud Business and Possible Tesla Merger—
    9. 21 Oct, 00:59Bloomberg.comMusk's Push For SpaceX-Tesla Merger, Netflix Results, More—
    10. 21 Oct, 01:10The Guardian BusinessTesla and SpaceX explore merger as Elon Musk gives backing—
    11. 21 Oct, 01:19Cointelegraph.com NewsMusk says SpaceX-Tesla merger a ‘good idea’ as AI revenue jumps ninefold—
    12. 21 Oct, 01:19Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraMusk confirms SpaceX and Tesla exploring merger—
    13. 21 Oct, 01:34Bloomberg.comMusk: Merit in SpaceX-Tesla Tie-Up, Netflix Lackluster Outlook—
    14. 21 Oct, 02:33Bloomberg.comSpaceX-Tesla Exploring Merger, Netflix Growth Concerns, More—
    15. 21 Oct, 03:25Bloomberg.comMusk: Merit in Combining SpaceX-Tesla, Netflix Earnings, More—
    16. 21 Oct, 03:51Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraElon Musk says SpaceX and Tesla exploring largest merger in history—
    17. 21 Oct, 04:13BBC ScienceWhy does Elon Musk want to merge Tesla and SpaceX?—
    18. 21 Oct, 05:48Bloomberg.comAI ‘Almost Certainly’ A Bubble, Tesla-SpaceX Merger Talks, More—
    19. 21 Oct, 05:53Deutsche WelleMusk says SpaceX-Tesla merger 'good idea' as companies explore union—
    20. 21 Oct, 07:01Fortune‘Tap dancing through a minefield’: Elon Musk’s $3.5 trillion Tesla-SpaceX merger talks expose his power—and scant accountability—
    21. 21 Oct, 07:07Bloomberg.comMusk Says SpaceX and Tesla Have Begun Exploring a Merger—
    22. 21 Oct, 07:38Bloomberg.comUK Debt Exceeds £3 Trillion,SpaceX-Tesla Merger Push, More—
    23. 21 Oct, 08:40RSS 2.0SpaceX and Tesla are exploring a possible merger—
    24. 21 Oct, 09:01Bloomberg.comSpaceX-Tesla Merger Talks, Griffin's AI Bubble Warning, More—
    25. 21 Oct, 09:23CoinDeskSpaceX and Tesla explore merger that would unite more than 30,000 bitcoin—
    26. 21 Oct, 09:29Bloomberg.comUkraine Peace Discussions, SpaceX-Tesla Merger Talks, More—
    27. 21 Oct, 09:50News FeedRockets, robots and risk: Musk’s $3.6tn gamble to merge Tesla and SpaceX—
    28. 21 Oct, 10:26France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlinesMusk talks up potential merger of SpaceX and Tesla—
    29. 21 Oct, 10:26Bloomberg MarketsElon Musk Thinks $3.5 Trillion Tesla-SpaceX Mashup Is a Good Idea—
    30. 21 Oct, 10:45News FeedMusk’s SpaceX ambitions may be ‘dangerous’ for Europe, warns EU lawmaker—
    31. 21 Oct, 10:52Bloomberg.comSpaceX, Tesla Study Potential $3.5 Trillion Combination—
    32. 21 Oct, 11:13The New York TimesElon Musk Says SpaceX and Tesla Are Exploring a Merger—
    33. 21 Oct, 11:20QuartzTesla and SpaceX boards formed special committees to review a potential merger—
    34. 21 Oct, 11:20QuartzDie Vorstände von Tesla und SpaceX haben spezielle Ausschüsse gebildet, um eine potenzielle Fusion zu prüfen.—
    35. 21 Oct, 11:21Bloomberg TechnologySpaceX-Tesla Combination ‘Extremely Tangible,’ Ferragu Says—
    36. 21 Oct, 11:39MarketWatchMusk says he’s exploring a SpaceX-Tesla megamerger. What would a combined company be worth?—
    37. 21 Oct, 11:40Bloomberg.comPutin and Witkoff Meet, Musk Endorses Merger of SpaceX and Tesla—
    38. 21 Oct, 12:10QuartzLarry Ellison verpfändete Oracle-, Tesla- und SpaceX-Aktien für Kredite, bevor der Warner-Deal seines Sohnes abgeschlossen wurde.—
    39. 21 Oct, 13:10QuartzElon Musk sagt, dass Tesla und SpaceX eine potenzielle Mega-Fusion ins Auge fassen.—
    40. 21 Oct, 14:41DeadlineElon Musk & Larry Ellison Will Join Forces To Boost Both Starlink And Skydance, John Malone Predicts—
    41. 21 Oct, 14:44Bloomberg TechnologySpaceX, Tesla Boards Study Possible $3.5 Trillion Merger—
    42. 21 Oct, 15:00The Hollywood ReporterJohn Malone Predicts a Major Deal Between Skydance and Elon Musk’s SpaceX—
    43. 21 Oct, 15:28Bloomberg MarketsA SpaceX-Tesla Merger? Why Elon Musk Thinks It’s a Good Idea—
    44. 21 Oct, 15:51The HillMusk: SpaceX, Tesla merger a 'good idea'—
    45. 21 Oct, 16:14Bloomberg.comRussia Open to New Talks, SpaceX Shares Rally on Merger News—
    46. 21 Oct, 16:16decrypt.coMusk’s SpaceX-Tesla Merger Would Create a Bitcoin Treasury Behemoth—
    47. 21 Oct, 16:26Bloomberg MarketsJohn Malone Floats Potential Deal Between Skydance and SpaceX—
    48. 21 Oct, 16:43Bloomberg.comBloomberg Intelligence: SpaceX, Tesla Study Merger (Podcast)—
    49. 21 Oct, 16:44Bloomberg TechnologyMusk Weighs Massive SpaceX Tesla Merger—
    50. 21 Oct, 17:03Bloomberg.comRussia Open to 3-Way Talks, SpaceX, Tesla Study Merger, More—
    51. 21 Oct, 17:25News FeedTesla-SpaceX: a huge corporate constellation with Musk as its sun—
    52. 21 Oct, 18:05Bloomberg TechnologySpaceX has Blowout Quarter as Musk Floats Merger with Tesla—
    53. 21 Oct, 18:16decrypt.coHow a SpaceX and Tesla Merger Would Reshape Musk’s AI Empire—
    54. 21 Oct, 18:59Bloomberg MarketsPotential Tesla, SpaceX Merger, NFL Investments, Inside Activism—
    55. 21 Oct, 19:41The Guardian BusinessTesla to report earnings after Elon Musk floats SpaceX merger plan—
    56. 21 Oct, 20:09International homepageTesla’s profits slip on weaker vehicle sales—
    57. 21 Oct, 20:11The New York TimesTesla Earnings Show Profit Declines Amid Talks to Merge With SpaceX—
    58. 21 Oct, 20:51Bloomberg TechnologyTesla's Future Is Robotaxis, Says Ark's Keeney—
    59. 21 Oct, 21:10Bloomberg TechnologySpaceX and Tesla Will Combine, Steve Westly Predicts—
    60. 21 Oct, 21:44MarketWatchWhy investors should be skeptical of a potential Tesla-SpaceX merger—
    61. 21 Oct, 23:29MarketWatchTesla’s stock falls as Elon Musk leaves investors wanting more—
    62. 22 Oct, 02:23Latest articlesTesla’s spending on AI and robotics trails expectations, clouding outlook—
    63. 22 Oct, 04:00News FeedTranscript: Elon Musk’s $3.6tn gamble to merge SpaceX and Tesla—
    64. 22 Oct, 07:00FortuneElon Musk’s dream merger is a nightmare for SpaceX shareholders—
    65. 22 Oct, 08:56NPR PoliticsKara Swisher on Elon Musk: 'He's unelected, unaccountable, enormously wealthy'—
    66. 22 Oct, 09:00politico.comSpace Force scrambles as Musk’s SpaceX retires its major rocket—
    67. 22 Oct, 09:28All Content from Business InsiderSpaceX-Tesla merger could create a Frankenstein's monster Wall Street can't value—
    68. 22 Oct, 10:27FortuneElon Musk’s SpaceX-Tesla merger math doesn’t add up—
    69. 22 Oct, 10:28Bloomberg TechnologyTesla-SpaceX Merger Is Elon Musk’s Biggest AI Bet Yet—
    70. 22 Oct, 10:43FortuneThe biggest hurdle to a SpaceX merger with Tesla isn’t Elon Musk. It’s Tesla’s shareholders—
    71. 22 Oct, 11:19Inc.The 1 Number That Explains Why Elon Musk Wants to Merge Tesla and SpaceX—
    72. 22 Oct, 11:28NPR PoliticsU.S., Israel may attack Iran post-elections. And, SpaceX and Tesla consider merging—
    73. 22 Oct, 11:29Inc.Tesla and SpaceX Are Trading Like a Merger Is Coming—
    74. 22 Oct, 11:32Latest articlesMusk’s political baggage clouds prospects for SpaceX-Tesla deal—
    75. 22 Oct, 11:50QuartzMusk's public push for a SpaceX-Tesla merger is complicating the talks—
    76. 22 Oct, 14:52All Content from Business InsiderSpace Force scrambles as Elon Musk's SpaceX retires its major rocket—
    77. 22 Oct, 17:35Bloomberg TechnologyTesla Shareholders Likely to Demand a Premium: New Street's Harwood—
    78. 22 Oct, 19:45The VergeSure, let’s smoosh SpaceX and Tesla together, who cares—
    79. 22 Oct, 21:30Bloomberg MarketsA Tesla-SpaceX Merger Doesn’t Add Up—
    80. 22 Oct, 22:11Bloomberg.comBloomberg Businessweek Daily: SpaceX-Tesla Merger (Podcast)—
    81. 23 Oct, 03:43Latest articlesMusk wants to merge SpaceX and Tesla: Here’s what to know—
    82. 23 Oct, 19:36decrypt.coSpaceX Filing Gives Elon Musk the Final Word on Tesla Merger He Says He’s Staying Out Of—
    83. 23 Oct, 19:52Bloomberg TechnologySpaceX-Tesla Merger? | Zuckerberg's Deal | The Rundown—
    84. 24 Oct, 04:00News FeedMusk’s bet of the century—
    85. 25 Oct, 21:22Bloomberg TechnologyMusk Says SpaceX Closed $40 Billion Debt Deal, Blasts Neoclouds—
    86. 26 Oct, 01:50MarketWatchMusk says SpaceX landed a $40 billion debt deal — and forecasts doom for some AI rivals—
    87. 26 Oct, 03:11CoinDeskElon Musk confirms $40 billion SpaceX debt deal for AI chips, warns of neocloud shakeout—
    88. 26 Oct, 05:00News FeedTesla’s AI ambitions take flight as rivals race to keep up—
    89. 26 Oct, 05:37All Content from Business InsiderElon Musk says neoclouds are cooked, and SpaceX won't be buying them—
    90. 26 Oct, 07:32Bloomberg TechnologyMusk Says $40 Billion Debt Deal for AI Chips Has Closed—
    91. 26 Oct, 11:02Bloomberg TechnologyMusk’s Dream of SpaceX-Tesla Merger Rests on Carmaker’s Shareholders—
    92. 26 Oct, 11:40QuartzMusk said SpaceX closed $40 billion in debt financing for AI chips—
    93. 26 Oct, 15:50Times of IndiaDays after Musk calls Tesla-SpaceX merger a ‘good idea’, Barclays says: Buy Tesla—
    94. 26 Oct, 18:41Bloomberg TechnologyTesla-SpaceX Merger Hopes Send Bearish Ratings to 11-Year Low—
    95. 27 Oct, 17:00Bloomberg TechnologySpaceX and Tesla Turn to Boards Cozy With Musk to Mull a Merger—
    96. 29 Oct, 14:33Bloomberg TechnologyMusk’s Favorite Ticker Is Free for Taking in a SpaceX-Tesla Deal—
    97. 30 Oct, 16:25decrypt.coElon Musk, CZ Trade Blows Over SpaceX Shares After $6.4B Binance Hack—
    98. 31 Oct, 19:58Times of IndiaTesla Bull defends Musk in open letter to Bernie Sanders; days later, Musk responds—
    99. 1 Nov, 23:58News FeedSchool IB economics: SpaceX and Tesla boards explore potential merger—
    100. 3 Nov, 17:46decrypt.coElon Musk’s Tesla and SpaceX Block Their Stock From OKX-ICE Tokenized Venue—
    101. 4 Nov, 04:28Bloomberg MarketsTesla, SpaceX Shares Take Early Hit as Midterm Blue Wave Unfolds—
    102. 4 Nov, 05:00News FeedBehind Musk and Zuckerberg’s decade-long efforts to repel investor lawsuits13%
    103. 4 Nov, 11:05All Content from Business InsiderTesla and SpaceX shares drop after Elon Musk's election bet backfires13%
    104. 4 Nov, 11:53The New York TimesMusk Faces Setback as SpaceX and Tesla Stocks Tumble on Midterm Election Results13%
    105. 4 Nov, 13:41MarketWatchTesla and SpaceX shares slide as Musk’s political push falls flat11%▼2 points since the previous source
    106. 4 Nov, 15:00QuartzDie Aktien von Tesla und SpaceX fallen, nachdem Elon Musks Wette zu den Zwischenwahlen schiefgelaufen ist.11%
    107. 4 Nov, 15:00QuartzShares of Tesla and SpaceX fall after Elon Musk's midterm election bet backfired11%
    108. 4 Nov, 16:51Inc.Elon Musk’s Midterm Efforts Flopped. Now, His Stocks Are Taking a Hit Too11%
    109. 4 Nov, 20:36Ars TechnicaElon Musk moved SpaceX to red Texas. Now it's blue. What happens next?9%▼2 points since the previous source
    110. 5 Nov, 15:45QuartzShares of Tesla and SpaceX sink as Elon Musk's post-election rout gets worse12%▲3 points since the previous source
    111. 5 Nov, 15:48Bloomberg MarketsSpaceX Default Risk Hits Fresh Peak as Tech-Led Selloff Builds12%
    112. 5 Nov, 16:44BBC BusinessShares in Musk's SpaceX plunge as tech and AI stocks fall12%
    113. 5 Nov, 19:29MarketWatchThe ‘Musk selloff’ deepens as Tesla and SpaceX combine for $450 billion two-day wipeout12%
    114. 6 Nov, 02:30Hacker NewsTesla and SpaceX lose over $420B in combined market cap in the two days10%▼2 points since the previous source
    115. 6 Nov, 15:22QuartzA longtime Elon Musk backer is done with Tesla stock and scaling back on SpaceX10%
    116. 6 Nov, 15:30QuartzEin langjähriger Unterstützer von Elon Musk zieht sich von Tesla-Aktien zurück und reduziert sein Engagement bei SpaceX.10%
    117. 6 Nov, 17:34Bloomberg TechnologySpaceX to Get Under 10% of Revenue From US Government, Musk Says10%
    118. 6 Nov, 20:13QuartzElon Musk said U.S. government revenue will fall below 10% of SpaceX sales this quarter10%
    119. 6 Nov, 21:45MarketWatchElon Musk opens the door for a big SpaceX acquisition10%
    120. 6 Nov, 22:51theinformation.comLongtime SpaceX Board Member Resigns10%
12. NowCurrent odds12%