Before 2028
Why it moved: +32 points at 23:11 UTC, after theinformation.com: Longtime SpaceX Board Member Resigns — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 75% |
| 6 Nov, 23:11 UTC | 75% |
| 6 Nov, 05:38 UTC | 43% |
| 5 Nov, 22:54 UTC | 71% |
| 5 Nov, 15:49 UTC | 44% |
| 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | 76% |
| 5 Nov, 05:57 UTC | 77% |
| 5 Nov, 01:28 UTC | 76% |
| 4 Nov, 23:04 UTC | 80% |
| 4 Nov, 22:42 UTC | 45% |
| 4 Nov, 13:09 UTC | 76% |
| 4 Nov, 07:34 UTC | 77% |
| 3 Nov, 08:25 UTC | 76% |
| 3 Nov, 00:19 UTC | 80% |
| 2 Nov, 15:19 UTC | 70% |
| 2 Nov, 08:15 UTC | 82% |
| 1 Nov, 23:07 UTC | 93% |
| 1 Nov, 22:10 UTC | 74% |
| 1 Nov, 21:56 UTC | 64% |
| 1 Nov, 19:30 UTC | 93% |
| 1 Nov, 16:36 UTC | 70% |
| 1 Nov, 15:38 UTC | 95% |
| 1 Nov, 15:24 UTC | 71% |
| 1 Nov, 12:33 UTC | 73% |
| 1 Nov, 11:19 UTC | 75% |
| 1 Nov, 10:57 UTC | 40% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Elon Musk deposits SpaceX shares into Trump accounts for at least 10 million children, as confirmed by any Source Agency before January 1, 2028. The outcome is No if this specific deposit and confirmation do not occur within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the linked news story about a chip deal for the actual event required to resolve the market.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 75%
- No 25%