Yes
Why it moved: −7 points at 18:27 UTC, after Ars Technica: AST SpaceMobile is so desperate for launch they're building their own rocket — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 39% |
| 6 Nov, 18:27 UTC | 39% |
| 4 Nov, 15:58 UTC | 46% |
| 3 Nov, 21:49 UTC | 38% |
| 3 Nov, 15:07 UTC | 44% |
| 3 Nov, 14:18 UTC | 43% |
| 3 Nov, 06:44 UTC | 39% |
| 2 Nov, 22:02 UTC | 37% |
| 2 Nov, 21:19 UTC | 40% |
| 2 Nov, 17:19 UTC | 37% |
| 2 Nov, 11:29 UTC | 36% |
| 1 Nov, 03:40 UTC | 29% |
| 31 Oct, 15:15 UTC | 28% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if SpaceX announces an agreement to acquire a major U.S. telecom business before January 1, 2028. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked story about a Starship launch for the actual resolution condition.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 39%
- No 61%