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Montana election odds, 2026

What the prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi price for Montana's Senate and House races. Republicans won the Senate race · House: 2 of 2 districts priced, Democrats expected to win 1.0. Prices are probabilities set by traders putting money on the outcome, not our forecast.

Montana Senate race

Settled: Republicans won. A day before, Polymarket gave Democrats 1% and Kalshi <1%. Polymarket called it. Kalshi called it.

Polymarket

Democrats 0% −1
Republicans 100% +10

Kalshi

Kurt Alme (R) 89% +1

Also priced: Seth Bodnar 11%

0%25%50%75%100%0%0%23 Sept4 Nov
PolymarketKalshiChance Democrats win, as each exchange prices it. History is recorded from when we began tracking each market.

Montana House districts

2 of 2 districts priced. Democrats are expected to win 1.0 of the priced seats; favoured in 1, toss-up in 0, Republicans favoured in 1.

Montana House districts, 2026
DistrictFavouredPolymarketKalshiCandidates
MT-01 Democrats won D 100% –
MT-02 Republicans won D 0% D 3% Brian Miller v Troy Downing

Other states

Odds from Polymarket and Kalshi. Market prices are information, not investment advice. Where only one exchange prices a race, the other is shown as having no market. The national map · How the markets did.