Election odds › Virginia

Virginia election odds, 2026

What the prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi price for Virginia's Senate and House races. Democrats won the Senate race · House: 10 of 11 districts priced, Democrats expected to win 7.0. Prices are probabilities set by traders putting money on the outcome, not our forecast.

Virginia Senate race

Settled: Democrats won. A day before, Polymarket gave Democrats 99% and Kalshi 99%. Polymarket called it. Kalshi called it.

Polymarket

Democrats 100% +1

Republicans 0% −1

Kalshi

Mark Warner (D) 99%

Bert Mizusawa (R) 2% +1

PolymarketKalshiChance Democrats win, as each exchange prices it. History is recorded from when we began tracking each market.

Virginia House districts

10 of 11 districts priced. Democrats are expected to win 7.0 of the priced seats; favoured in 7, toss-up in 0, Republicans favoured in 3.

Virginia House districts, 2026
District	Favoured	Polymarket	Kalshi	Candidates
VA-01	Democrats won	D 100%	–
VA-02	Democrats won	D 100%	–
VA-03	D 97%	–	D 97%	Bobby Scott v Edwin Rivera
VA-04	Democrats won	D 100%	D 97%	Jennifer McClellan v Robert Murray
VA-05	Republicans won	D 0%	D 2%	Tom Perriello v John McGuire
VA-06	Republicans won	D 0%	D 1%	Beth Macy v Ben Cline
VA-07	Democrats won	D 100%	–
VA-08	D 96%	–	D 96%	Don Beyer v Tony Sabio
VA-09	R 95%	–	D 5%	Joy Powers v Morgan Griffith
VA-11	Democrats won	D 100%	D 98%	James Walkinshaw v Arthur Purves

Virginia in the news

Virginia Senator L Louise Lucas Indicted on Federal Drug and Money Laundering Charges 7 publishers
Duke Football Visits Virginia for Critical Week 8 ACC Matchup 2 publishers
Virginia Faces Duke in Crucial ACC Matchup Amidst Struggling Season 2 publishers

All Virginia stories →

Other states

Odds from Polymarket and Kalshi. Market prices are information, not investment advice. Where only one exchange prices a race, the other is shown as having no market. The national map · How the markets did.