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Maryland election odds, 2026

What the prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi price for Maryland's governor and House races. Democrats won the governor race · House: 8 of 8 districts priced, Democrats expected to win 6.9. Prices are probabilities set by traders putting money on the outcome, not our forecast.

Maryland governor race

Settled: Democrats won. A day before, Polymarket gave Democrats 99% and Kalshi 99%. Polymarket called it. Kalshi called it.

Polymarket

Democrats 100% +1

Republicans 0% −1

Kalshi

Wes Moore (D) 99%

Dan Cox (R) 1%

PolymarketKalshiChance Democrats win, as each exchange prices it. History is recorded from when we began tracking each market.

Maryland House districts

8 of 8 districts priced. Democrats are expected to win 6.9 of the priced seats; favoured in 7, toss-up in 0, Republicans favoured in 1.

Maryland House districts, 2026
District	Favoured	Polymarket	Kalshi	Candidates
MD-01	Republicans won	D 0%	D 14%	Dan Schwartz v Andy Harris
MD-02	Democrats won	–	D 98%	Johnny Olszewski v Dave Wallace
MD-03	D 99%	D 100%	D 98%	Sarah Elfreth v Berney Flowers
MD-04	D 98%	–	D 98%	Glenn Ivey v George McDermott
MD-05	Democrats won	D 100%	D 96%	Adrian Boafo v Chris Chaffee
MD-06	D 98%	D 100%	D 96%	April McClain Delaney v Robin Ficker
MD-07	D 95%	–	D 95%	Kweisi Mfume v Scott Collier
MD-08	D 97%	–	D 97%	Jamie Raskin v Cheryl Riley

Maryland in the news

College Football Week 6 Odds and Predictions Highlight Alabama-Georgia, Oregon-UCLA Matchups 4 publishers
Moore Dodges Question on Full Second Term in Maryland Debate 2 publishers
US Households Pay 62% More for Water Than a Decade Ago 3 publishers

All Maryland stories →

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Odds from Polymarket and Kalshi. Market prices are information, not investment advice. Where only one exchange prices a race, the other is shown as having no market. The national map · How the markets did.