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Texas election odds, 2026
What the prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi price for Texas's Senate, governor and House races. Democrats won the Senate race · Democrats won the governor race · House: 38 of 38 districts priced, Democrats expected to win 14.0. Prices are probabilities set by traders putting money on the outcome, not our forecast.
Texas Senate race
Settled: Democrats won. A day before, Polymarket gave Democrats 75% and Kalshi 71%. Polymarket called it. Kalshi called it.
Texas governor race
Settled: Democrats won. A day before, Polymarket gave Democrats 41% and Kalshi 41%. Polymarket missed it. Kalshi missed it.
Texas House districts
38 of 38 districts priced. Democrats are expected to win 14.0 of the priced seats; favoured in 14, toss-up in 0, Republicans favoured in 24.
| District | Favoured | Polymarket | Kalshi | Candidates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TX-01 | R 99% | D 0% | D 1% | Yolanda R. Prince v Nathaniel Moran |
| TX-02 | Republicans won | D 0% | D <1% | Shaun Finnie v Steve Toth |
| TX-03 | Republicans won | D 0% | D 6% | Evan Hunt v Keith Self |
| TX-04 | Republicans won | D 0% | D 5% | Jason Pearce v Pat Fallon |
| TX-05 | Republicans won | D 0% | D 1% | Chelsey Hockett v Lance Gooden |
| TX-06 | Republicans won | D 0% | D 3% | Danny Minton v Jake Ellzey |
| TX-07 | Democrats won | D 100% | D 96% | Lizzie Fletcher v Alexander Hale |
| TX-08 | Republicans won | D 0% | D 5% | Laura Jones v Jessica Steinmann |
| TX-09 | Democrats won | D 100% | – | |
| TX-10 | Republicans won | D 0% | D 9% | Caitlin Rourk v Chris Gober |
| TX-11 | R 95% | – | D 5% | Claire Reynolds v August Pfluger |
| TX-12 | Republicans won | D 0% | D 5% | Angela Rodriguez Prilliman v Craig Goldman |
| TX-13 | R 97% | – | D 3% | Mark Nair v Ronny Jackson |
| TX-14 | Republicans won | D 0% | D 5% | Thurman Bartie v Randy Weber |
| TX-15 | Democrats won | D 100% | – | |
| TX-16 | Democrats won | D 100% | D 98% | Veronica Escobar v Adam Bauman |
| TX-17 | Republicans won | D 0% | D 4% | Casey Shepard v Pete Sessions |
| TX-18 | D 97% | – | D 97% | Christian Menefee v Ronald Whitfield |
| TX-19 | Republicans won | D 0% | D 4% | Kyle Rable v Tom Sell |
| TX-20 | D 98% | D 100% | D 96% | Joaquin Castro v Edgardo Baez |
| TX-21 | Republicans won | D 0% | D 3% | Kristin Hook v Mark Teixeira |
| TX-22 | Republicans won | D 0% | D 3% | Marquette Greene-Scott v Trever Nehls |
| TX-23 | Democrats won | D 100% | D 44% | Katy Padilla Stout v Brandon Herrera |
| TX-24 | Republicans won | D 0% | D 7% | Kevin Burge v Beth Van Duyne |
| TX-25 | Republicans won | D 0% | D 4% | Dione Sims v Roger Williams |
| TX-26 | Republicans won | D 0% | D 3% | Steven Shook v Brandon Gill |
| TX-27 | Republicans won | D 0% | D 1% | Tanya Lloyd v Michael Cloud |
| TX-28 | Democrats won | D 100% | – | |
| TX-29 | Democrats won | D 100% | D 96% | Sylvia Garcia v Martha Fierro |
| TX-30 | D 95% | – | D 95% | Frederick Haynes III v Everett Jackson |
| TX-31 | Republicans won | D 0% | D 7% | Justin Early v John Carter |
| TX-32 | Republicans won | D 0% | – | |
| TX-33 | D 97% | – | D 97% | Colin Allred v Patrick David Gillespie |
| TX-34 | Democrats won | D 100% | – | |
| TX-35 | Democrats won | D 100% | – | |
| TX-36 | Republicans won | D 0% | D 5% | Rhonda Hart v Brian Babin |
| TX-37 | D 99% | D 100% | D 97% | Greg Casar v Lauren B. Peña |
| TX-38 | Republicans won | D 0% | D <1% | Melissa McDonough v Jon Bonck |
Texas in the news
- First College Football Playoff Rankings Released with Georgia, Oregon Surging 4 publishers
- Week 10 College Football Matches Could Reshape Playoff Race 3 publishers
- Five-Star Recruit Brysen Wright Commits to Miami, Reclassifies to 2027 3 publishers
- Gina Hinojosa Becomes First Latina Governor of Texas 2 publishers
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Odds from Polymarket and Kalshi. Market prices are information, not investment advice. Where only one exchange prices a race, the other is shown as having no market. The national map · How the markets did.