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Election odds › South Dakota

South Dakota election odds, 2026

What the prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi price for South Dakota's Senate, governor and House races. Republicans won the Senate race · governor: Republicans 96% · House: 1 of 1 districts priced, Democrats expected to win 0.0. Prices are probabilities set by traders putting money on the outcome, not our forecast.

South Dakota Senate race

Settled: Republicans won. A day before, Polymarket gave Democrats <1% and Kalshi 1%. Polymarket called it. Kalshi called it.

Polymarket

Republicans 100% +5

Kalshi

Also priced: Brian Bengs 6%

0%25%50%75%100%0%1%21 Oct3 Nov
PolymarketKalshiChance Democrats win, as each exchange prices it. History is recorded from when we began tracking each market.

South Dakota governor race

Republicans favoured (96%, average of the exchanges)

Polymarket

Democrats 3% −2

$6k traded in 24 hours

Kalshi

Larry Rhoden (R) 97% −1

$384 traded in 24 hours

0%25%50%75%100%3%4%20 Sept7 Nov
PolymarketKalshiChance Democrats win, as each exchange prices it. History is recorded from when we began tracking each market.
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South Dakota House districts

1 of 1 districts priced. Democrats are expected to win 0.0 of the priced seats; favoured in 0, toss-up in 0, Republicans favoured in 1.

South Dakota House districts, 2026
DistrictFavouredPolymarketKalshiCandidates
SD-AL R 98% D 0% D 4% Nicole Gronli v Marty Jackley

Other states

Odds from Polymarket and Kalshi. Market prices are information, not investment advice. Where only one exchange prices a race, the other is shown as having no market. The national map · How the markets did.