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New Jersey election odds, 2026
What the prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi price for New Jersey's Senate and House races. Democrats won the Senate race · House: 12 of 12 districts priced, Democrats expected to win 10.9. Prices are probabilities set by traders putting money on the outcome, not our forecast.
New Jersey Senate race
Settled: Democrats won. A day before, Polymarket gave Democrats 99% and Kalshi 98%. Polymarket called it. Kalshi called it.
New Jersey House districts
12 of 12 districts priced. Democrats are expected to win 10.9 of the priced seats; favoured in 11, toss-up in 0, Republicans favoured in 1.
| District | Favoured | Polymarket | Kalshi | Candidates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJ-01 | D 99% | D 100% | D 98% | Donald Norcross v Damon Galdo |
| NJ-02 | Democrats won | D 100% | D 99% | Zack Mullock v Jeff Van Drew |
| NJ-03 | Democrats won | D 100% | D 97% | Herb Conaway v Michael McGuire |
| NJ-04 | Republicans won | D 0% | D 7% | Rachel Peace v Chris Smith |
| NJ-05 | D 100% | D 100% | – | |
| NJ-06 | Democrats won | D 100% | D 97% | Frank Pallone v Hillary Herzig |
| NJ-07 | Democrats won | D 100% | – | |
| NJ-08 | D 99% | D 100% | D 98% | |
| NJ-09 | Democrats won | D 100% | – | |
| NJ-10 | Democrats won | D 100% | D 100% | LaMonica McIver v Carmen Bucco |
| NJ-11 | Democrats won | D 100% | D 98% | Analilia Mejia v Joe Hathaway |
| NJ-12 | Democrats won | D 100% | D 96% | Adam Hamawy v Gregg Mele |
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Odds from Polymarket and Kalshi. Market prices are information, not investment advice. Where only one exchange prices a race, the other is shown as having no market. The national map · How the markets did.