Election odds › Michigan
Michigan election odds, 2026
What the prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi price for Michigan's Senate, governor and House races. Democrats won the Senate race · Democrats won the governor race · House: 13 of 13 districts priced, Democrats expected to win 9.0. Prices are probabilities set by traders putting money on the outcome, not our forecast.
Michigan Senate race
Settled: Democrats won. A day before, Polymarket gave Democrats 81% and Kalshi 76%. Polymarket called it. Kalshi called it.
Michigan governor race
Settled: Democrats won. A day before, Polymarket gave Democrats 94% and Kalshi 94%. Polymarket called it. Kalshi called it.
Michigan House districts
13 of 13 districts priced. Democrats are expected to win 9.0 of the priced seats; favoured in 9, toss-up in 0, Republicans favoured in 4.
| District | Favoured | Polymarket | Kalshi | Candidates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MI-01 | Republicans won | D 0% | D 14% | Callie Barr v Jack Bergman |
| MI-02 | Republicans won | D 0% | D 3% | Benjamin Ambrose v John Moolenaar |
| MI-03 | Democrats won | D 100% | – | |
| MI-04 | Democrats won | D 100% | – | |
| MI-05 | Republicans won | D 0% | D 4% | Christian Vukasovich v Tim Walberg |
| MI-06 | Democrats won | D 100% | D 95% | Debbie Dingell v Heather Smiley |
| MI-07 | Democrats won | D 100% | – | |
| MI-08 | D 100% | D 100% | – | |
| MI-09 | R 98% | D 0% | D 4% | Ray Pooley v Lisa McClain |
| MI-10 | Democrats won | D 100% | – | |
| MI-11 | Democrats won | D 100% | D 96% | Jeremy Moss v Ethan Baker |
| MI-12 | D 98% | – | D 98% | Rashida Tlaib v James Hooper |
| MI-13 | D 98% | – | D 98% | Donavan McKinney v T.P. Nykoriak |
Michigan in the news
- Abdul El-Sayed becomes first Muslim elected to US Senate in historic Michigan victory 30 publishers
- Iowa Beats Michigan With Last-Second Touchdown in 20-19 Upset 4 publishers
- UConn vs Michigan Preview: Odds and Picks for Hall of Fame Series Rematch 2 publishers
- Michigan Names Tommy Carr Starting Quarterback for Foreseeable Future 4 publishers
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Odds from Polymarket and Kalshi. Market prices are information, not investment advice. Where only one exchange prices a race, the other is shown as having no market. The national map · How the markets did.